After Impressive Rally MSFT Hanging Out at the Highs

Jul 20, 2017: 11:17 AM CST

You may not see Microsft (MSFT) as a great candidate for day trading, but swing traders certainly have been using it with good results.

Let’s chart the recent impressive rally into the current reversal candle “hanging out” at the highs:

Microsoft MSFT Stock Price

Microsoft (MSFT) shares rallied 11 straight days higher including today from the $68.00 lower support pivot through the prior high toward the current $74.00 per share level.

That’s impressive by any standards.

Yet here we are, once again with (so far) a reversal candle above the upper Bollinger Band.

It’s a similar situation to what we saw at the beginning of June ahead of a steep yet normal/expected retracement lower after another impressive straight-up rally.

If you’re aggressive, you may want to play defensively here to try to trade (fade) the pullback from the high.

Otherwise, 11 straight up days can become 12… then 13… and yes it can happen.

The odds are strongly against it – making a valid “fade trade” – but it could happen.

Either way, the next swing should be interesting – frame it in terms of the “departure” from $74.00 per share. Continue Reading…

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Creeper Emini Trend to New Highs Revealed July 20

Jul 20, 2017: 10:44 AM CST

The bulls charge forward, carving out a new all-time high this morning.

This afternoon doesn’t look so bullish – but let’s update our chart and note what’s new.

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

Bull bull bull!  Breakout breakout breakout!

A “Creeper Trend” emerged after July 12th’s trendline breakout.

We call this a “Positive Feedback Loop” where higher prices CAUSE higher prices – namely from buyers buying or adding to existing positions, playing off greed, and short-sellers/bears buying-to-cover losing positions, playing off fears.

Greed and fear – it’s the core of what drives the market.  Making a quick profit or avoiding a loss.

So here we are, extending a rally higher through “Open air” in an ongoing intraday uptrend in the context – as I keep repeating to members – of a triple timeframe bull market.

Watch your rising moving averages in the chart above and flip cautious if price breaks beneath them soon or remain pro-trend bullish while price creeps above them.

If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

Continue Reading…

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Critical Support Test Challenge for Goldman Sachs GS

Jul 19, 2017: 8:43 AM CST

Goldman Sachs (GS) reported positive earnings that beat expectations yesterday… yet the stock fell.

Shares now face a critical “Make or Break” support challenge at a key confluence level.

What is it and what’s the short-term trade from here?  Let’s plan it:

Goldman Sachs GS Flag Support

As a long-term trader, it still frustrates me to no end to see a stock beat earnings yet collapse lower.

That’s one reason I focus so much of my trading on technical analysis – charts make sense!

Anyway, earnings aside, the chart reveals Goldman Sachs (GS) shares to be at a critical confluence support pivot.

We’re specifically seeing the overlap of the rising 200 day SMA (red) with the lower rising “flag” trendline of a rising parallel trendline channel (yellow highlight).

Ideally shares bounce here and trade the bullish pathway toward the $230 level again.

However, traders should be ready to short-sell (or take stops) on a breakdown/breakout beneath this support level which could collapse shares quickly toward the $210 per share prior low from June.

Even if you’re not trading this stock at this juncture, it should be fun to watch what happens next for your educational reference. Continue Reading…

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Back to the Lows we Go in Chipotle CMG after Big Arc

Jul 19, 2017: 8:31 AM CST

After a textbook Rounded Arc formation completed in Chipotle (CMG) shares, we  now see a return to the prior lows.

Let’s update our charts, note the key price level, and study the pattern:

Chipotle CMG Rounded Arc Reversal

A big negative momentum divergence – a “Three Push” Pattern – set in on the rally toward $500 per share.

Sellers stepped in and buyers took profits, resulting in the right side of the “Mirror Image” or Rounded Arc pattern highlighted above.

After a successful decline toward the $400 price target, buyers lost the battle this morning as shares collapsed beneath $400 toward the prior low pivot near $370 per share.

While studying the pattern, make a note of what happens next into the $370 target. Continue Reading…

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Peeking at Market Internals on the Breakout to New Highs

Jul 17, 2017: 1:00 PM CST

What are market internals saying about the recent big bullish breakout to new all-time highs?

Let’s take a look and listen to the message beneath the market:

SP500 S&P 500 Market Internals Bullish Breakout

We listen to the message from price which is saying “I’m breaking out – I’m all new all-time highs.  I’m very bullish.”

Great, Mr. Market – that’s wonderful.  But what is Mr. Market  Internal saying?

We’re charting the “Big Three” NYSE Breadth (top), TICK (middle), and Volume Difference (of Breadth) as our main market internals.

First, we saw a CONFIRMATION or bullish surge on July 12th when price broke through the falling trendline.

This allowed us to call for higher prices yet to come via a Bullish Dominant Thesis in our Membership Report.

Price did actually travel the bullish “Open Air” price pathway toward then above the 2,450 target. Continue Reading…

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