Breakdown Intraday Update and Stock Scanning to Start October

Oct 1, 2014: 1:09 PM CST

Today certainly won’t be remembered as an ordinary, average day!

At mid-day, stock prices are collapsing in a liquidation swing as sellers broke price under a key support level (opening the bearish pathway we see now).

Let’s update our S&P 500 chart and highlight the top trending stocks of the day as usual:

We saw a Fibonacci Retracement grid from our intraday planning from September 29th, and now we see price breaking the lows which opened up the Trend Day and liquidation swing we’re seeing now.

At this point, we’ll need to look to higher timeframe support levels due to price making new intraday lows in a clear downtrend on the lower frame charts.

A target point exists into the 1,945 level so we’ll be watching for any sort of intraday inflection up off this level.

If not, then we continue our bearish “trend day” strategies.

Continue Reading…

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Fast Fall for Ford Shares into Key Target

Sep 30, 2014: 10:01 AM CST

Ford shares (F) broke a critical support level and collapsed instantly toward the current key level where we’ll be watching for a reaction.

We can study this textbook example (of a sudden yet telegraphed market reversal) as we focus on the current pivot support.

Here’s the Daily Chart with breakdown:

Shares rallied most of 2014 from the $14.25 level toward the $18.00 per share “double top” peak.

Price rose for a “Last Gasp” rally to start September after the full test of the $18.00 per share resistance.

Note the lengthy negative divergence in both momentum (3/10 Oscillator) and volume along with the “Kick-Off” new momentum low to start August – these are classic signals ahead of likely market reversals.

Again, price bounced up to test the prior high yet fell shy in a “Failure Test” or what I like to call a “Last Gasp” rally ahead of the sell-off or collapse in price. Continue Reading…

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Tight Range Compression Continues and Breakout Awaits for Chipotle CMG

Sep 30, 2014: 9:36 AM CST

For those awaiting a breakout in Chipotle shares (CMG), the wait may be coming to an end.

Shares currently remain compressed between the 20 and 50 EMAs as traders await a range (and EMA) breakout.

Let’s update our charts and plot the “Breakout Pathways” for trading this stock:

I initially highlighted this “EMA Compression” last week and wanted to provide an update as shares continued the compression.

We’re still awaiting a breakout from this pattern which triggers a bullish breakout above the $665 level (target would extend toward the $700 prior high level) or else a bearish breakdown triggers on a movement down away from the $655 level.

A steep retracement/breakdown lower opens a sell-pathway toward the $600 confluence. Continue Reading…

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Reversal Intraday Update and Stock Scan for Sept 29

Sep 29, 2014: 12:40 PM CST

New low?  Reversal?  Retracement?

Let’s take a look at our intraday S&P 500 for today’s update and highlight the up and down trending stocks of the session for possible opportunities to trade into the close.

We’re taking a broader perspective of the intraday chart to highlight the current (short-term) Fibonacci Retracement levels as drawn.

We note the 38.2% level into 1,986 on the S&P 500 index which served as Friday’s intraday high as price pushed once again this morning off the gap to a new fractional intraday low.

Today’s high so far has been the 1,980 index level.

Monitor the intraday activity of price within the context of Friday’s range and look for bullish breakout trades above 1,986 or otherwise a continuation of the range.

Continue Reading…

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Studying the Stealthily Strong Trender Disney DIS

Sep 26, 2014: 11:14 AM CST

You may not be aware that Disney (DIS) is one of the strongest trending stocks in the Dow Jones and S&P 500 right now and has been since its breakout in mid-2012.

Let’s start with the Monthly Chart (where the magic is) and study this stock from there:

I wanted to focus this post on the purity of the price trend in motion for Disney (DIS) shares.

Note the typical sideways long-term consolidation from the 2000 peak to the 2002/2003 low into the peak near 2007 and the retest of the bottom of 2009.

Many stocks show a similar pattern (top in 2000, bottom near 2002, top again in 2007, bottom again in 2009) and other stocks also share breakouts to new all-time highs in the 2012/2013 period, but there’s something special – if not magical – about Disney shares.

The strength and persistence of the strong uptrend that took place in mid-2012 carried price almost straight up into the current $90 per share level (doubling from the $45 per share resistance). Continue Reading…

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