August 4 Big Mover Stock Scan and Market Update

Aug 4, 2015: 2:29 PM CST

Stocks tested their lows as an ongoing consolidation (range) environment continues.

What levels are we focusing on now? Let’s see!

For the S&P 500, buyers have supported the market into the 2,088 reference level.

Monday and now Tuesday saw strong rallies up off this key short-term trading level.

For now, price continues to trade in a short-term downtrend within a broader Daily Chart range.

Follow along with members for more precise daily planning, analysis, and education.

Continue Reading…

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A Big Drop and Breakdown for Apple AAPL into Target

Aug 4, 2015: 10:30 AM CST

Apple (AAPL) shares entered distribution mode with a breakdown under support and the 200 day SMA.

What’s happening now and what downside support levels are valid targets?

Let’s start with a zoomed-in Daily Chart view of Apple (AAPL):

First, start with a prior update from July appropriately titled “Apple Breaking Down – New Price Level Planning.”

Note how I specifically targeted the $115.00 per share area which was achieved and exceeded today.

Also check out the three highlights on the Volume Chart which displays distribution ahead of this week’s collapse.

After a Bear Trap took price just shy of all-time highs above $132.00 ahead of earnings, bears took over and gapped price back to the key support level near $122.00 per share.

After a failed rally, sellers then broke price under the 200 day SMA Monday and we’re seeing the continuation liquidation collapse the price straight into the current level.

Let’s focus on the critical importance of this level – the $114.00 per share region: Continue Reading…

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What Two Breadth Charts are Saying about the Current SP500

Aug 4, 2015: 9:03 AM CST

Is a reversal developing in the stock market?

Let’s listen to the message from two charts of stock market breadth.

We’ll start with the Percentage of Stocks above Key Moving Averages:

The chart above shows the Daily S&P 500 Index with two indicators:

The percentage of stocks (in the S&P 500) above their 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the percentage of stocks above their 200 day SMA.

Generally, a strong rising market will show a large percentage of stocks above key moving averages; a weakening market will show deterioration of stocks above these averages.

For now, we saw broad strength in the late 2014 rally to new all-time highs, but since then (especially throughout 2015), the S&P 500 Index crept (or limped) higher while fewer stocks remained above these key averages.

At present, 48.5% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 20 day SMA while 50% of stocks are above their 200 day SMA.

If you’re a super bull expecting this trend to continue higher indefinitely, this is not the message you want Breadth to whisper to you.

Let’s see another perspective of Breadth – stocks at new 52-week highs and lows: Continue Reading…

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Start of August Update and Trending Stock Scan

Aug 3, 2015: 2:13 PM CST

Though buyers attempted a bounce-rally up off 2,100’s key support level, they failed as the market dropped sharply to a new swing low.

What levels are we focusing on now? Let’s see!

For now, we continue to focus on two simple levels:

Though buyers had an opportunity to enter and bounce price higher Friday, they failed with the opening of the market this week.

Price instantly pushed under 2,100, stalled as a key battle took place at this important level, and buyers capitulated to the more aggressive sellers.

We see the breakdown and sharp intraday swing straight down from 2,105 to 2,085 as a new short-term downtrend developed.

We’re now watching the 2,085 target level and the short-term pivot high into 2,092 for clues for trading today.

Follow along with members for more precise daily planning, analysis, and education.

Continue Reading…

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Key SP500 Trendline Planning Levels to Start the Week

Aug 3, 2015: 10:16 AM CST

Short term traders benefit from taking a moment to view the larger picture of ongoing trends.

There’s a clear trend – and clear levels to watch – in the S&P 500 during the ongoing bull market.

Let’s update our “Parallel Trendline Channel” Structure and note what levels are important here.

First, here’s the broader picture of the S&P 500 trend stretching back to the 2009 Reversal Low.

During QE1 and QE2, stock prices rallied impulsively higher and corrected (retraced) during periods without Quantitative Easing from the Federal Reserve.

The current trend phase (highlighted) began late 2011 and has continued without a change in the pattern.

Note the Rising Parallel Trendline Channel that continues to contain price within the upper and lower levels.

Price has spent more time scraping against the upper trendline and only four touches (tests) of the lower line.

We can actually see a better perspective of the key levels by viewing a tighter perspective: Continue Reading…

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