Patterns in Priceline PCLN Range and Breakout Levels

May 5, 2016: 10:58 AM CST

Priceline (PCLN) gapped down from a lengthy trading range yesterday but may be trying to re-enter it.

Let’s search for “Patterns in Priceline” and plan any trading opportunity from there:

First, let’s focus on the Rising Range Price Pattern as highlighted above.

PCLN is a high-priced stock that traders can approach with option strategies, even simple put or call buys.

Yesterday gave us a big breakdown under the $1,260 level which was a key rising trendline.

The upper rising resistance trendline intersects a price level just under $1,400 per share.

The Midpoint Magnet Price is near $1,330.

With those levels in mind, let’s continue to focus on the current breakdown and two price pathways:

The first pathway - a BULLISH PATH – suggests that price re-enters the trendline range, triggering a BEAR TRAP outcome.

If so, we would look to play bullishly within the pattern back to the Midpoint (at least) near $1,330.

Otherwise, the breakdown or BEARISH PATH opens similarly to that of January 2016 with a sustained breakdown and breakout of the pattern.

Price gave us two such breakouts and returns back inside the pattern.

Here’s an indicator-based chart for more clarity: Continue Reading…

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Cinco de Mayo Emini Fibonacci Planning Grid Update

May 5, 2016: 10:48 AM CST

Happy Cinco de Mayo!

We’re seeing an expected bounce (rally) on divergences up away from the 2,040 @ES level.

Here’s today’s updated Fibonacci and Emini (@ES) trading levels for your plans and trades:

From tonight’s member report, we were STRONGLY BULLISH for a BOUNCE (plan) going into today’s session.

So far, that analysis was correct as price is pushing higher – off positive divergences – at the 2,040 @ES Level.

We’re re-entered our Fibonacci Grid, taking flight back above the 2,048 pivot into the range (highlights).

The upside potential target (short-term) is again the 2,060 Fibonacci Level.

Above that level, price can extend toward the Midpoint at 2,070.

For today’s session, focus on 2,048 and the movement “away from” this key pivot.

Get these levels in advance with in-depth planning and trading opportunities by joining the Daily Membership.

Continue Reading…

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Selling Pressure Continues Market Update and Stock Scan May 4

May 4, 2016: 1:16 PM CST

Price broke support to new swing lows today as a deeper retracement takes hold of the market.

Let’s update our levels for the S&P 500 Index and note the big trending stocks today:

The intraday chart shows a short-term downtrend (lower lows and lower highs) with price dropping to new lows under 2,050 today.

We can see how momentum and internals called our short-term reversals in price which set-up good trading opportunities.

At this point, price is failing to bounce and we’ll focus our attention on the departure from the 2,045 and 2,050 current levels.

Receive daily updates, planning, and education by joining the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership.

Continue Reading…

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Either a Bounce or Another Collapse Plan for Apple AAPL

May 3, 2016: 10:26 AM CST

Cutting to the point, Apple shares (AAPL) either support-bounce and rally up away from the $93.50 level or else we see another collapse and breakdown lower.

Either way, whether or not you’re trading Apple for fun or profit, focus your attention on what happens here:

Our “Price Only” Chart shows the downtrend (lower lows and lower highs) in motion from the early 2015 peak.

Price trended down away from the $130.00 level toward the current $95.00 per share pivot over the last year.

We’re at a similar point as we saw in December with price retesting a prior support low ($110.00) after a downswing and retracement bounce higher off support.

Ultimately price failed to hold support, breaking powerfully lower under $110.00 for a collapse move toward $95.00 in January 2016.

A similar upward retracement took price above $110.00 – the prior pivot – and the recent April sell-swing pushed price straight down to where we are now at the $94.00 critical pivot.

Officially the $93.50 level will be the focal point for traders as we plan for a “Bounce or Break” outcome.

Our trades – and open position management – should be based on what happens here.

The Bullish Thesis calls for a rally at least back toward $100 for a short-term trading opportunity.

However, any future breakdown to fresh new 52-Week Lows suggests another liquidation (sell) swing even lower.

While the plan is clearer on the “Price Only” chart, if you’d like a bit more strategy, we have our Indicator Chart: Continue Reading…

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Crude Oil Collapses to Lower Targets with Stocks May 3

May 3, 2016: 9:56 AM CST

Though rallying to the $47.00 per barrel short-term target, Crude Oil reversed lower with a multi-day retracement and gap-down this morning.

We have new levels to watch for targets and possible bounce points, as seen in our grid below.

Here’s today’s updated Fibonacci trading levels for your trades in Crude Oil @CL:

To compare Oil’s Levels with the @ES S&P 500 (e-mini), take a look at this morning’s update.

For Crude Oil – as stated this weekend in the strategy update to members – we were expecting a retracement “down away from” the $47.00 per barrel level.

So far, that’s precisely what we’re seeing as a negative momentum divergence developed into this upside target.

Price gapped down into the first target at the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement at $44.13.

We’re now seeing a collapse down – along with stocks – to the 50% Retracement at the $43.30 level.

We’ll focus on the $43.30 pivot and if price fails to bounce here (as would be logical), then we’ll target a move back to the prior low and Fibonacci Pivot Level exactly at $42.50.

Get these levels in advance with in-depth planning and trading opportunities by joining the Weekly Membership.

Continue Reading…

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