Comments on: A Look at the 1929, 1938, and Current Recoveries

By: Eerie Line Chart Similarities between 1929 and 2009 | Penny Stock Trading System Blog

Fri, 29 Jan 2010 14:26:45 +0000

[...] A Look at the 1929 and 1937 Crashes and Recoveries [...]

By: Black Monday – Ancient History or Possible Future? | Penny Stock Trading System Blog

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 21:57:17 +0000

[...] A Look at the 1929 and 1937 Crashes and Recoveries [...]

By: Black Monday - Ancient History or Possible Future? | Afraid to Trade.com Blog

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 23:28:03 +0000

[...] A Look at the 1929 and 1937 Crashes and Recoveries [...]

By: Chart Junkie: An Annotated US Dollar Chart, Our Current Post-Crash Rally, VWAP on the S&P 500, and Housing Vacancies | Wall St. Cheat Sheet

Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:26:42 +0000

[...] The Technical Analysis Professor Corey Rosenbloom has some great charts comparing historical crash recoveries. Above is our current experience as it has unfolded thus far. (Source: Afraid to Trade) [...]

By: Don-Da-Mon

Don-Da-Mon — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 06:30:45 +0000

Corey, What did the dollar index (if there was one) do back during the great depression? It seems the dollar value is playing a big role in today's market. Did it also back then? If no dollar index, what else could be used gold?

Here is the chart I use to normalize the S&P with the dollar index

http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf….

Select UDN tab to normalize

By: Don-Da-Mon

Don-Da-Mon — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 01:30:45 +0000

Here is the chart I use to normalize the S&P with the dollar index

http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf….

Select UDN tab to normalize

By: hfguy

hfguy — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 20:15:06 +0000

Corey,

a few big picture indicators:

1. Weekly Ichimoku cloud was pierced this week and the two leading spans crossed (we'll see if it stays) but that was not the case until 1933 and the end of 1938 respectively

2. Monthly MACD crossover - same

3. Monthly RSI above 50 (1933 and end of 1942 resp)

4. 12-month EMA (1933 and 1942)

I have not run the Coppock curve or the Miekka curve but I bet they show a similar picture - i.e., the bear market rallies in 1932 and 1937 didn't have any of the technical readings we have today and those showed up only after the bear market had truly ended...

By: Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:42:58 +0000

Thanks C1

Absolutely - but it would take a larger viewpoint to quantify specifically which waves unfolded.

I've taken a more general rather than specific approach to wave labeling, noting the difference in impulse and corrective, and then watching momentum with 3rd and 5th waves.

In both 1938 and 1929, it appears that the rally was a 5-wave fractal or perhaps a convoluted 3-wave "ABC".

I'd really have to show the larger structure for a better perspective - that's a great idea for a follow-up post!

By: c1cummin

c1cummin — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:36:20 +0000

interesting, thanks for the analysis, Corey. Just curious, in the previous recovery rally examples highlighted, did those rallies end being part of an elliott wave and if so, which one?

By: Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 15:58:57 +0000

Thanks Jason,

I mistyped an extra “1″ in there and have corrected the 10,328 price level.