A Quick Glance at Monthly Crude Oil

Mar 23, 2009: 11:12 AM CST

A couple of readers have asked about the Elliott Wave count on Crude Oil and I wanted to give a lengthy, multi-year view of the $WTIC Index to show the clean Elliott Count and possibility for the near future.

Monthly Crude Oil ($WTIC):


(Click for Larger Image)

A complete 5-wave Elliott pattern completed into mid-2008, with the recent major down-swing most likely being recorded as an “A” Corrective Wave.  It would appear currently that price has retraced back considerably and found key support about the $35/$40 level, which reflects the 200 month moving average and prior resistance at $40 (from two significant swing highs).

If this count is correct, then we would expect price to continue higher in a “B” Corrective Wave Rally which should be expected to find key resistance – via multiple timeframes – around the $70 per barrel range (if price makes it that far).

There appears to be open air (open chart space) up to that level (which is ‘only’ $20 away) so that seems the likely or logical chart play at the moment.

Reference last week’s post “A Quick Look at Crude Oil and the Dollar” for additional insights on the Weekly Chart and Fibonacci retracements the correlate with the $70 level.

Corey Rosenbloom
Afraid to Trade.com

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4 Comments

4 Responses to “A Quick Glance at Monthly Crude Oil”

  1. Anonymous Says:

    So no one chance of a pullback to 46 before the jump to 70? we are in the 10th day of just one direction in the oil´s price.

  2. Corey Rosenbloom Says:

    I think odds are good that we could test the “Cradle” EMA Confluence (around $45) on the Daily chart – we are due for a pullback and that level would hold expected support. I can’t envision us going straight to $70 if we make it that far.

  3. pikertrader Says:

    I agree Corey, and we could be looking at a weaker dollar. Weakly chart of the $USD looks like it wants to break down. http://www.pikertrader.com

  4. Mark Says:

    Crude oil inventories are at a 16 year high folks!