A Quick Look at the Major US Stock Indexes Nov 29

Nov 29, 2009: 2:45 PM CST

With the end of November just a day away, let’s take a quick look at the daily charts of the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 US Stock Market indexes.

First, the Dow Jones Daily Index:

Quick observations:

Negative Volume and Momentum Divergences serving as non-confirmations of the recent 2009 price highs.

Watch 20d EMA at 10,200 for possible bounce, and if not, watch for a play back down to 10,000.   Any break of 10,000 would be very bearish and argue for further declines.

Next, the NASDAQ Composite Index:

Quick observations:

Similar negative volume and momentum divergences.

Price has already broken the rising 20 day EMA at 2,150, and price supported Friday off the 50d EMA at 2,040.  Watch this area for support, and any move beneath 2,100 would argue for a play back to 2,050 – and any move under this would argue for a deep retracement.

Finally, the S&P 500 Index:

Quick observations:

Price is 3 points under the rising 20 day EMA at 1,090, so watch for a possible play to 1,070 for potential support via the 50 day EMA.

Any move under the prior two price lows at 1,020 would argue for a deeper retracement.

Identical negative volume and momentum divergences/non-confirmations as the other indexes.

Combined Comments:

I’ve highlighted the “swing highs” or as I’m calling them to subscribers, the “Choppy-Toppy” periods which have been very difficult to trade weeks where the market has fallen sharply lower in one or two sessions, only to recover it all back in a series of non-stop up days.

If history is any guide, we’re toward the latter stages of a “Choppy-Toppy” identical swing as those I’ve highlighted – it’s almost eerie how price has repeated the exact same pattern.

Pay close attention to this pattern, as it paves the road ahead clearly if the pattern repeats.

The pattern would be broken (and thus market character changed) on any major surge up or collapse down in price.  Until one of those happens, it is reasonable to expect that “Past is Prologue” or that history should repeat with a quick down move into support and then a possible bounce higher.

For more detailed analysis – including discussions on the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts and opportunities for positioning in the stock market, gold, crude oil, 10-year Notes, and the US Dollar Index (and respective ETFs), please subscribe to my Weekly Intermarket Reports which takes a ‘larger perspective’ approach to current trading opportunities.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

3 Comments

3 Responses to “A Quick Look at the Major US Stock Indexes Nov 29”

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