A Quick Look at the Weekly Commodity CRB Aug 21

Aug 21, 2009: 12:45 PM CST

With markets at potentially major turning points – one way or the other – let’s take a quick look at the CRB (Commodity) Index for a possible clue.

One almost has to look at the weekly chart to appreciate the price damage broad commodities took in 2008 – it was stellar.

Now, price is forming a counter-rally against last year’s plunge, but price has retraced upwards into a critical resistance area that needs to be addressed.

The $260/$270 Index area reflects the falling 50 week EMA along with the weekly upper Bollinger Band line – both of which are expected to hold as resisance (until breached convincingly).

If this week closes about the same index level as we’re seeing on this chart, then we’ll have formed a doji candle at this overhead potential resistance area, which furthers the odds that resistance will hold.

Then again, if this level is broken to the upside, we would have an “Open Air” scenario where all levels of ‘obvious’ weekly resistance would be broken which would likely result in a momentum move up to the $320 level.

As a note, key Fibonacci price levels to watch are as follows (not labeled):

38.2%:  $305
50.0%:  $335

Let’s see how buyers/sellers react at this technical (price) level for additional clues to what’s in store for the future.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Follow Corey on Twitter:  http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

3 Comments

3 Responses to “A Quick Look at the Weekly Commodity CRB Aug 21”

  1. TenYear Says:

    thoughts on Oil? Looks like a good breakout candidate. Long oil short natty gas is still in play.

  2. Name Says:

    Off topic!
    I would like to speculate on Friday's option ending break-out being a false one? Is the S&P ever known to have risen Friday's amount and to sustain it for three days – in order to implode again next Tuesday August 25th?

  3. Name Says:

    Off topic!
    I would like to speculate on Friday's option ending break-out being a false one? Is the S&P ever known to have risen Friday's amount and to sustain it for three days – in order to implode again next Tuesday August 25th?