A Rounded Reversal and Support Level to Watch in Bond Fund TLT

Mar 16, 2012: 8:51 AM CST

TLT is a popular proxy for traders and investors to watch for bond prices, or to use as a hedging or trading vehicle.

Let’s take a look at the recent “Rounded Reversal Arc” in price which now challenges its first potential support target on this week’s recent breakdown.

Here’s the Daily Chart “Arc” Pattern into Support:

“Rounded Reversal” or “Rounded Arc” patterns are a type of Distribution pattern that represents an orderly transfer from demand (buyers) to supply (sellers).

The alternate way for price to reverse is a more violent “spike” which we often call a “V-Spike Reversal.”

Anyway, you can see how the lengthy negative divergences developed during the agonizing flat or “consolidation” period from November 2011 to present which culminated in this week’s strong support breakdown.

At the moment, the TLT chart is challenging its first/initial downside target near $110, which is the overlap of the rising 200d SMA (important) and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement as drawn.

The weekly chart also shows a similar confluence with the rising 50w EMA:

The rising 50w EMA also comes in at the $110 level ($109.15 now) which makes the $110 region the critical potential support price level to watch.

As with all confluence or price pivot levels, we often drop to lower timeframes to assess the chart picture/signals there.

At these critical chart junctures, price can either support/bounce off of them (an aggressive trade for short-term bullish traders) or else break sharply through them (a breakdown entry for bearish traders).

Generally, when price firmly breaks under a confluence support level, it continues on to lower respective targets which would immediately expand to $107.50, $103, and perhaps even as low as $100 again.

But don’t get ahead of the price until we get official signals via breakdowns of these levels.

For now, watch how price trades relative to the $100 confluence in TLT – either retracing up off it for the moment… or crashing down through it to lower levels.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter:  http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s new book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available!

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  • Check out this recent video from late December showing a double top.


  • Stemski

    Hi Corey,

    I wanted to add that there is also strong support in this area due to the 2010 high of 109.34. This line held in 2011 after the huge stock up move in October 2011.

    Is this line significant?


  • Geez guys! This looks like what I was saying over the last month....



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