Comments on: A Year to Date look Volume and Volatility in the SP500 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/a-year-to-date-look-volume-and-volatility-in-the-sp500/ Helping traders overcome fears and emotions in trading Thu, 09 Feb 2012 14:53:15 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Bob http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/a-year-to-date-look-volume-and-volatility-in-the-sp500/comment-page-1/#comment-212892 Bob Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:55:39 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/?p=5234#comment-212892 The prolonged trading range in the S & P can also be viewed as a period of transition and rebalancing. Those who've been long the market are likely unwinding some of their positions here, while others late to the game are trying to board the gravy train. The ultimate question... "Can this fat turkey fly again"?<br><br>Also, a prolonged trading range is advantageous to larger institutional players. It allows them to unwind large volume positions slowly and discretely without attracting too much attention. The prolonged trading range in the S & P can also be viewed as a period of transition and rebalancing. Those who've been long the market are likely unwinding some of their positions here, while others late to the game are trying to board the gravy train. The ultimate question… “Can this fat turkey fly again”?

Also, a prolonged trading range is advantageous to larger institutional players. It allows them to unwind large volume positions slowly and discretely without attracting too much attention.

]]> By: Bob http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/a-year-to-date-look-volume-and-volatility-in-the-sp500/comment-page-1/#comment-212893 Bob Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:29:16 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/?p=5234#comment-212893 If the big institutional players are in fact holding until year end to ensure their fund performance numbers are secured, which is a solid hypothesis, a shift might be visible just prior to year end; increased large block selling to lock in gains and increased short interest. So far, this hasn't happened, but some may get an itchy trigger find, jump the gun and start a cascade of selling. This rally could unwind in a hurry if there's volume participation. If the big institutional players are in fact holding until year end to ensure their fund performance numbers are secured, which is a solid hypothesis, a shift might be visible just prior to year end; increased large block selling to lock in gains and increased short interest. So far, this hasn't happened, but some may get an itchy trigger find, jump the gun and start a cascade of selling. This rally could unwind in a hurry if there's volume participation.

]]> By: thetradedetective http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/a-year-to-date-look-volume-and-volatility-in-the-sp500/comment-page-1/#comment-212894 thetradedetective Thu, 17 Dec 2009 13:39:21 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/?p=5234#comment-212894 Hey Corey,<br><br>It's funny I posted almost the exact same <a href="http://www.recordpricebreakout.com/forecast-things-not-looking-good-for-the-sp-500-in-january/" rel="nofollow">analysis</a><br><br>I'm going to go against TWC below, becaues of what I'm seeing with a slower MACD on longer term charts. It could just be as you say, volume is just inheritly lower since the financial shakeup. Hey Corey,

It's funny I posted almost the exact same analysis

I'm going to go against TWC below, becaues of what I'm seeing with a slower MACD on longer term charts. It could just be as you say, volume is just inheritly lower since the financial shakeup.

]]> By: Bob http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/a-year-to-date-look-volume-and-volatility-in-the-sp500/comment-page-1/#comment-211616 Bob Thu, 17 Dec 2009 11:55:39 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/?p=5234#comment-211616 The prolonged trading range in the S & P can also be viewed as a period of transition and rebalancing. Those who've been long the market are likely unwinding some of their positions here, while other late to the game are trying to board the gravy train. The ultimate question... "Can this fat turkey fly again"? The prolonged trading range in the S & P can also be viewed as a period of transition and rebalancing. Those who've been long the market are likely unwinding some of their positions here, while other late to the game are trying to board the gravy train. The ultimate question… “Can this fat turkey fly again”?

]]> By: Bob http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/a-year-to-date-look-volume-and-volatility-in-the-sp500/comment-page-1/#comment-211615 Bob Thu, 17 Dec 2009 11:29:16 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/?p=5234#comment-211615 If the big institutional players are in fact holding until year end to ensure their fund performance numbers are secured, which is a solid hypothesis, a shift might be visible just prior to year end; increased large block selling to lock in gains and increased short interest. So far, this hasn't happened, but some may get an itchy trigger find, jump the gun and start a cascade of selling. This rally could unwind in a hurry if there's volume participation. If the big institutional players are in fact holding until year end to ensure their fund performance numbers are secured, which is a solid hypothesis, a shift might be visible just prior to year end; increased large block selling to lock in gains and increased short interest. So far, this hasn't happened, but some may get an itchy trigger find, jump the gun and start a cascade of selling. This rally could unwind in a hurry if there's volume participation.

]]> By: thetradedetective http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/a-year-to-date-look-volume-and-volatility-in-the-sp500/comment-page-1/#comment-211613 thetradedetective Thu, 17 Dec 2009 07:39:21 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/?p=5234#comment-211613 Hey Corey,<br><br>It's funny I posted almost the exact same <a href="http://www.recordpricebreakout.com/forecast-things-not-looking-good-for-the-sp-500-in-january/" rel="nofollow">analysis</a><br><br>I'm going to go against TWC below, becaues of what I'm seeing with a slower MACD on longer term charts. It could just be as you say, volume is just inheritly lower since the financial shakeup. Hey Corey,

It's funny I posted almost the exact same analysis

I'm going to go against TWC below, becaues of what I'm seeing with a slower MACD on longer term charts. It could just be as you say, volume is just inheritly lower since the financial shakeup.

]]> By: pipercolt http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/a-year-to-date-look-volume-and-volatility-in-the-sp500/comment-page-1/#comment-211612 pipercolt Thu, 17 Dec 2009 04:57:30 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/?p=5234#comment-211612 tw, we'll probably tag 1130 by the end of the year, the fact is this chart is very bullish, for my shorts to have worked would have had to fail at the second test of 1100 which didn't happen. tw, we'll probably tag 1130 by the end of the year, the fact is this chart is very bullish, for my shorts to have worked would have had to fail at the second test of 1100 which didn't happen.

]]> By: twc2009 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/a-year-to-date-look-volume-and-volatility-in-the-sp500/comment-page-1/#comment-211611 twc2009 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 02:17:43 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/?p=5234#comment-211611 Hi Corey,<br><br>I appreciate your methodical approach to the TAs, perhaps, one of the best I have come across online. <br>here is my 2 cents: <br><br>It appears that the peaks in the ATR correspond to the dips in the instrument. So, in this case, the ATR being so low, $SPX is probably going HIGHER. You get a better picture of this corelation if you go a few years back.<br><br>Also, considering the rising 50/200 MAs, tightened bollinger band (hasn't been this narrow since mid 2007 when the market kept going higher), and a very bullish $NYAD (adv-dec line), and other factors you mentioned, the upcoming BIG move points UP, IMHO. <br><br>Let the games begin!<br><br>GLnGT<br>twc Hi Corey,

I appreciate your methodical approach to the TAs, perhaps, one of the best I have come across online.
here is my 2 cents:

It appears that the peaks in the ATR correspond to the dips in the instrument. So, in this case, the ATR being so low, $SPX is probably going HIGHER. You get a better picture of this corelation if you go a few years back.

Also, considering the rising 50/200 MAs, tightened bollinger band (hasn't been this narrow since mid 2007 when the market kept going higher), and a very bullish $NYAD (adv-dec line), and other factors you mentioned, the upcoming BIG move points UP, IMHO.

Let the games begin!

GLnGT
twc

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