AAPL Falling, Rising, Confusing

Jun 10, 2008: 1:24 PM CST

I thought it would be benficial to share two perspectives on the recent news and stock market price action in Apple Inc (AAPL) and what it might mean for the future.

First, Jim Goldman at CNBC Tech Check in his article “Apple:  The Day After” writes the following:

“Investors can be a quirky bunch, especially when we’re talking about Apple, and especially when they’re “trading” instead of investing.”

“Yesterday, they were all over the map: plunging, recovering, plunging, settling the day with a mild loss even in the face of what could be one of the most exciting platforms — not products, but platforms — this company has ever unveiled. Investors might have gotten it, but traders wanted more.”

I like the distinction he makes between traders and investors here and in the article.

“But what a difference a day makes, as investors — and those traders — start to appreciate the bigger picture here: iPhone is a platform, like the Mac and iPod before it. It is a phone….”

Also, Adam Hewison at the Market Club commentary posted an educational whiteboard video descriptively entitled, “AAPL:  June 2008 Update” on what happened and what may be in store for the stock which is definitely worth watching.

“Is the hype already built into the price?  Or will the price go much, much higher?”

Adam shows historical buy signals from their ‘trade triangle’ technology, and discusses the current signal as well as current support and resistance levels and the current trend and what may be some good price targets or risk-management (stop-loss) levels.  He also uses Fibonacci retracements to discuss possible pull-backs.

Remember that joining the Market Club gives you access to the analysis, commentaries, scans, and active trade triangles (including scanning for new signals) as a member, including real-time reports and interaction.

There will be a free two-week trial of the service offered this weekend, and I will post the details on that when it becomes available.

Finally, I wanted to share a portion of an email sent from a reader overseas describing his personal experience trading Apple’s announcement yesterday:

“I decided to stay up for the entire Apple conference last night to watch the stock movements and see what I could learn from it (as well as trade it). Staying up for it meant sleeping at 3am (not unusual these days).”

“As the conference opened and Steve Job’s demos began we saw that massive downward spike. The rate at which it fell was stunning. All I was hoping at the time was for it to rebound at $180 at some point later in the day so I could buy my puts at a reasonable price. The conference started off with long boring demos of software kits, etc and coincided with the fall.”

“Coincidentally (or not) the upward recovery only began once the actual iPhone demo was announced. Once the conference was finished and the iPhone price was announced, the fall began again.”

For me, I broke my promise to myself and bought PUTS *before* the words “iphone 3g” were uttered. I had originally told myself to wait (which would have been better in hindsight but I was concerned about missing the potential downswing).

I found the account fascinating, as it described a personal element to the intraday stock movement chart I displayed yesterday in my post, “AAPL Intraday – Why Didn’t it Rise?!”

Apple continues to intrigue many traders and investors, and I’m fascinated by their reactions, and so I’ll continue to watch this situation and the news surrounding it as it develops.

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