Comments on: Anticipating a New Price Swing Lower: A Rare Prediction http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/anticipating-a-new-price-swing-lower-a-rare-prediction/ Helping traders overcome fears and emotions in trading Thu, 09 Feb 2012 14:53:15 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Corey http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/anticipating-a-new-price-swing-lower-a-rare-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-30 Corey Fri, 09 Mar 2007 16:39:47 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/anticipating-a-new-price-swing-lower-a-rare-prediction/#comment-30 <a href="http://www.brettsteenbarger.com" rel="nofollow">Dr. Brett Steenbarger</a> posted a research-based, money flow analysis of the <a href="http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/03/wheres-flow-wtf-in-s-500-index.html" rel="nofollow">S&P 500</a>, <a href="http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/03/wheres-flow-xlk-and-technology-stocks.html" rel="nofollow">technology</a>, <a href="http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/03/wheres-flow-xle-and-energy-stocks.html" rel="nofollow">energy</a>, <a href="http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/03/wheres-flow-xlf-and-financial-stocks.html" rel="nofollow">financial</a>, and <a href="http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/03/wheres-flow-xlb-materials-stock-etf.html" rel="nofollow">materials</a> sectors. With the exception of the materials sector, the end conclusion appears to be the same when analyzing money flow: "[This] suggests that these large market participants are not yet finding good value in the lower prices, which could lead us yet lower in [these sectors]" Please view his posts at his <a href="http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">excellent blogsite</a>. Dr. Brett Steenbarger posted a research-based, money flow analysis of the S&P 500, technology, energy, financial, and materials sectors. With the exception of the materials sector, the end conclusion appears to be the same when analyzing money flow: “[This] suggests that these large market participants are not yet finding good value in the lower prices, which could lead us yet lower in [these sectors]” Please view his posts at his excellent blogsite.

]]> By: Corey http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/anticipating-a-new-price-swing-lower-a-rare-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-26 Corey Fri, 09 Mar 2007 14:59:30 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/anticipating-a-new-price-swing-lower-a-rare-prediction/#comment-26 Thank you Oda and Scott for your positive comments. It scares me that we're in agreement so far. I did want to point out something for risk-averse traders that I might should have highlighted. I am basing my analysis on momentum and equal swing concepts. However, Scott, you're right in that a strong, leveraged position could be entered short at the BREAK of the lower low that lines up (after the market made a lower swing high at the moving averages). In this case, this "<a href="http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/the-sweet-spot-in-the-data-trend-beginnings-and-large-targets/" rel="nofollow">sweet spot</a>" in the data would occur at a break of Dow 12,000 and would play for a small target of 200 points OR would enter short position trade and play for a trend-change down and hold longer term. You're right - IF this happens, we will set up a <a href="http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/the-sweet-spot-in-the-data-trend-beginnings-and-large-targets/" rel="nofollow">"Sweet Spot</a>" trend beginning trade to play the market lower. I pray that does not happen for the sake of newer traders and the overall market. Thank you Oda and Scott for your positive comments. It scares me that we’re in agreement so far. I did want to point out something for risk-averse traders that I might should have highlighted. I am basing my analysis on momentum and equal swing concepts. However, Scott, you’re right in that a strong, leveraged position could be entered short at the BREAK of the lower low that lines up (after the market made a lower swing high at the moving averages). In this case, this “sweet spot” in the data would occur at a break of Dow 12,000 and would play for a small target of 200 points OR would enter short position trade and play for a trend-change down and hold longer term. You’re right – IF this happens, we will set up a “Sweet Spot” trend beginning trade to play the market lower. I pray that does not happen for the sake of newer traders and the overall market.

]]> By: ODA 125 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/anticipating-a-new-price-swing-lower-a-rare-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-24 ODA 125 Fri, 09 Mar 2007 11:48:50 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/anticipating-a-new-price-swing-lower-a-rare-prediction/#comment-24 Corey, I see what you see - just in a different way to get the same opinion. Take a look at my post today as well as last week. Always amazes me when the charts "line up". Thanks for a great site!!! Oda Corey,

I see what you see – just in a different way to get the same opinion. Take a look at my post today as well as last week. Always amazes me when the charts “line up”. Thanks for a great site!!!

Oda

]]> By: Scott http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/anticipating-a-new-price-swing-lower-a-rare-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-23 Scott Fri, 09 Mar 2007 11:03:51 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/anticipating-a-new-price-swing-lower-a-rare-prediction/#comment-23 Nice post. You did a great job of putting into words (and pictures) what I had been thinking after having read your post of March 4th regarding the "sweet spot." This is a great example of that sort of analysis applied in the opposite direction. Nice post. You did a great job of putting into words (and pictures) what I had been thinking after having read your post of March 4th regarding the “sweet spot.” This is a great example of that sort of analysis applied in the opposite direction.

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