I wish I had foreknowledge ”

Very nice indeed kind Sir, I was, in a way, provoking you, the way you replied was the best possible, my hat off to you. I did have a “hidden agenda” indeed – I entered Sep165 long puts on Aug 13th based on DeMark setup (expected to be completed on Aug 15th) – closed today in the morning based on expectation of market reversing – sometimes technicians do find as you say high probability trades

Agreed 100%. TA is great for assessing probabilities and low-risk ideas based on price behavior. Fundamental analysis probably called $150 an excellent value and thus should have been a buy. Quantitative analysis may have said something entirely different, such as enter long because of gross overextension. We’re all trying to do the same thing – assess the probabilities and then enter when we view them favorable, while keeping risk as low as possible so as to have longer term success.

$150 may have been a major confluence point of multiple forms of market analysis, as evidenced by the price surge afterward.

I suspect there will be a pullback from these high levels, which could come back to retest the $165 to $170 level, I suspect price will support there, and then price will travel higher. Right now, the price is at a ‘make or break’ which could form a failure test of the previous high, but if it convincingly breaks the high, it would be wise to invest because the trend would have confirmed back to up on the daily chart. I try to anticipate only the next probable swing and then adjust course as needed and look for ‘make or break’ moments, and then enter low risk trades.

I wish I had foreknowledge

I really don’t see how else a short-term trendline could be drawn. Apple has broken above that level and yes is likely due for a pullback/retracement, but trendline analysis is one of the simplest and effective methods of determining potential price moves.

I’d be happy to hear what I’m missing, as I don’t have all the answers. I’m just trying to assess probability.

I should have clarified that the ‘disgusting’ phase was meant to refer to the price action, not to behavior by Apple and am glad to see your comment which clarifies that and provides background. I was shocked at the market action, and did see it as a long-term value, and those who entered strongly at that price were and probably will continue to be, rewarded.

Thanks

The 8/12/2008 Greg Michalowski USD JPY Chart shows a complete breakdown.

So now the US Dollar will now be turning lower.

The Dollar Rally that began July 14, 2008, as the yen carry traders sold oil to take profits, is now over.

Consumer stocks like Apple and Autozone, the Russell 2000 value shares and all kinds of finanical stocks will be foremost in the bears sight and action, as these rose so srongly with the Dollar Rally.

The investment application is to sell Apple on opening.

Give a guy a computer and they think they are stock pros.. good grief..

Apple did not commit a disgusting price action. It reported its results and offered conservative guidance, which makes sense for a consumer electronics company in a shaky economy. Everyone knows Apple does this every quarter. The disgusting action was the market reaction, which was pure stupidity. An incredible quarter and more to come – obvious to anyone with a brain. I sat on my stock knowing it would come back. I do think short traders try every day to use disinformation to hold the stock down. It is very lame. Apple will continue to shine, whether the market is smart enough to reward it – who knows.