Are We Really Repeating this SP500 Pattern Again?

Apr 22, 2014: 9:03 AM CST

Could we be caught in the Twilight Zone again and doomed to repeat the same outcome in the market?

Let’s take a look at our broader S&P 500 chart and highlight a repeat bullish outcome pattern and chart where we are and how far we have to go at the moment to repeat it again.

S&P 500 Repeat Pattern Recognition

Each green rectangle above represents a strong impulsive or “bar-over-bar” non-stop upward price action as the uptrend continues.

Many of these bar-over-bar impulse swings have been fueled by a short-squeeze or capitulation of the bears, particularly after “Bear Traps” triggered (with breaks under the rising 50 day EMA).

Not all bull-dominated impulse-outcomes have been identical, as seen from the grid below:

S&P 500 Price Swings

From January 2013, we’ve seen eight specific bull-domination swings that were at least 75 points in duration.

Of the eight swings, the average swing price is 111 points in the S&P 500.  As of this chart, we were roughly half-way to that point from the 1,815 April swing low.

A 75 point push up off 1,815 targets 1,890 while a 111 point move targets 1,926.

Here’s a screen-cap from April 16th’s Game-Planning Report for Members:

A zoomed-in view shows the prior four “Bear Trap” or Bull Dominated events and outcomes.

If we are trapped in the Twilight Zone and repeat the same pattern for a ninth time, targets expand up to the 1,890 then 1,925 level.

We’ll use this as the “Pattern Repeat” frame and balance the odds for continuity against the divergences into resistance and Rectangle Structure I highlighted yesterday.

Ultimately, if price (buyers) powers-through the 1,875 level here, there’s a strong probability history will repeat again despite all bearish arguments to the contrary.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

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2 Comments

2 Responses to “Are We Really Repeating this SP500 Pattern Again?”

  1. April 22 Breakout Trend Day Breadth Update and Stock Scan | Afraid to Trade.com Blog Says:

    […] “Are We Really Repeating this Pattern in the S&P 500 Again?“  (probably, yes) […]

  2. April 22 Breakout Trend Day Breadth Update and Stock Scan — Trading Your Own Way Says:

    […] “Are We Really Repeating this Pattern in the S&P 500 Again?“  (probably, yes) […]