Comments on: Bearish Rising Wedge in the SP500?

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 20:13:48 +0000

Even taking your assumption, turn it into a coin toss.

Heads, you get $2,000, tails you lose $1,000 (or $500).

Even if a patterns work 50% of the time, the edge comes from the stop and the target, given that the target is at least 2 times (or 3 times) the risk or stop. Simple edge, expectancy, and probability.

By: t

Sat, 24 Oct 2009 02:12:44 +0000

here we are late in october…how did that wedge work out for you after another 240 points on the sp?…so much for technicals having any valid logic…its just a pattern guessing game.

By: t

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 21:12:44 +0000

here we are late in october…how did that wedge work out for you after another 240 points on the sp?…so much for technicals having any valid logic…its just a pattern guessing game.

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 03:51:44 +0000

Mark,

Looks like a large 5-wave pattern, where the last hour or so was an ABC correction which led to the final 5th wave up. I know that oversimplifies it.

http://www.twitpic.com/3c8cc

That’s the best way to explain it.

There was a Cradle early in the day, and a negative divergence forming the 5th fractal wave of the larger W3 in the structure.

The late-afternoon push beneath the EMAs likely stole away stops which I know was very frustrating.

By: vijay

vijay — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 03:00:26 +0000

Interesting.I covered my IRA portfolio yesterday and am waiting for a pullback.We’ll see if that was a wise move.

By: mark

mark — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 20:28:11 +0000

Hey Corey, is there any way you can tear apart the last 2 hours of trading on faz? I was looking for a pullback after the high of day, checking the 1 min daily and the 5 min daily on my scottrade with the 20 and th3 50 averages, i jumped in after the 20 came up thru the 50 on the min chart, bought 10.63 , they then attached bags of rocks to both of my legs and thru me in the water, i broke loose long enuff to double down at 10.35 , and almost drowned at 10.15, looked like a divergence in the volume so i hung in there,looked to have an impulse up thru the averages again with a small bull flag, i was getting encouraged at this point, boom flagpole up to another flag at 10.70 to 10.90 area, measured out and was looking for 11 ish and sold into the frenzy at 11.10 before the close , when i seen them flags,thanks to you, i felt good after reading alot of your stuff over the weekend, anyways , would like to hear from a pro and tell me what i did right and wrong , thanks corey. mark

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 20:21:12 +0000

Mark,

Oh ok. I wasn’t sure of the timeframe you were seeing.

Right – patterns (and their targets) are relative to the timeframes, though the higher timeframes tend to dictate the outcome most of the times.

Good call!

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 20:19:32 +0000

Neil,

Thanks! I thought I’d add a little color to the post to make it more lively.

It can also be interpreted as a rising trend channel, but it seems to have a wedge character to it – at least for the time being.

That’s bearish – unless price breaks out of the up-channel unexpectedly.

By: mark

mark — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 18:15:27 +0000

hey corey, i was looking at yellow for the first hour and a half from the open, looked like pole to a flag to a pole to me , im on scottrade so i only have min sixty and 5 min daily and up , interesting with the 20 and 50 averages, am watching and learning more , missed a pullback on faz to 10.02 on bullflag with a target of 10.70 from first pole , but was gun shy , looking for something now, thanks mark.

By: Neil

Neil — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 18:12:01 +0000

Corey … haha …loved the expression “bruised bears and drunken bulls” …. Anyways, Excellent post again, u r quite right about the wedge, lets see how it plays …

Cheers