Comments on: Black Monday – Ancient History or Possible Future?

By: Eerie Line Chart Similarities between 1929 and 2009 | Penny Stock Trading System Blog

Sat, 30 Jan 2010 21:42:59 +0000

[...] Black Monday: Ancient History or Possible Future [...]

By: Eerie Line Chart Similarities between 1929 and 2009 | Afraid to Trade.com Blog

Thu, 28 Jan 2010 19:58:45 +0000

[...] Black Monday: Ancient History or Possible Future [...]

By: Dan de Man

Dan de Man — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 06:23:37 +0000

Thanks for the links Corey. I would have to agree the charts look ominously similar but I am guessing that it will play out as you described to TickerStreet. I don't wish ill upon the world, I just want my fair share.

I just think this market needs some good ol' panic selling so the long term money can come in and save the day on the way down. How about we just go to the bottom of the weekly bband to 881 and bounce back up from there, just so the bears get a little piece of the action.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=1&...

By: terlyn

terlyn — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 06:04:47 +0000

I don't care how low it goes, as long as I'm on the right side of the trade. I DO care about the economic consequences he discusses in Conquer the Crash, and his urge to readers to put savings into treasury bills, designated safe banks in other countries, buying real gold, and keeping a lot of cash handy, among other suggestions to prepare for banks collapsing (as they already are), electronic trading systems freezing (as my broker's did yesterday), and other extreme measures. If I had not lived through last Sept-Oct, I would not have paid attention to such dire forecasts.

By: TickerStreet

TickerStreet — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 05:47:30 +0000

Thanks Corey.

By: Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 04:25:12 +0000

Haha – as a trader, we crave volatility, so I know a few people who are hoping Mr. Prechter is right so they can take advantage of the volatility both intraday and with swing/position trades.

What interests me about his report – or more so the chart he shows above – is that which many people including myself have said – the 1929 crash looks very similar to the 2008 crash along with the sharp rally that preceded it.

I did an update post here that showed roughly the exact same chart:

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/a-look-at-the-192...

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/looking-back-on-t...

I'll add these links to the post above for reference.

By: Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 04:21:57 +0000

I'm with you – again, I think Mr. Prechter is brilliant and I have so much respect for him, but he is one voice among many and we all are entitled to our Elliott counts and market forecasts no matter how much experience we have.

By: Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 04:20:26 +0000

I'm certainly not as bearish as Mr. Prechter, and I don't think we're going into a Wave 3 down – I'm more inclined to think we're possibly heading into the final Wave 5 down to complete the ABC pattern as I've been saying in my updates:

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/sp500-elliott-wav...

The alternate interpretation is that we bottomed (Wave 5 of C) in March 2009 and that this is the beginning of a new bull market… but with all the divergences in momentum and volume, this feels more like a corrective “bear flag” style rally.

I admit that it's spooky to me that the current market looks so similar to that of 1929.

That leads me to believe that, yes, we do have greater odds of downside action ahead… but not to the extent of a move far beneath 660 or 600.

I do remember, and I updated readers, when Mr. Prechter went on CNBC and started releasing articles in late March/early April to “Cover your Shorts” for a large rally that he was spot-on in calling.

He's now making the rounds again saying the big rally has ended… which I tend to agree, but NOT to the extent of the decline he's forecasting.

By: Dan de Man

Dan de Man — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:58:10 +0000

Thank you for the article Corey. Everyone's entitled to their own opinions and a trader's mind should not be clouded by what they hear. If a trader has a valid system they should just follow their TA signals.

For the good of the world I hope this scenario does not play out. But if it does happen, I sure wouldn't mind going short day trading a 400 point day.

By: harryvanbeuningen

harryvanbeuningen — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:44:50 +0000

Prechter is a bright guy, but has been wrong more often than he has been right. I was a subscriber of his in the 1980's. This is not to say that he is of base with this projection, but I would not put too much faith in his prediction.