I wanted to show the volume comparison specifically, and I felt the 30min chart did the best trade-off of showing enough data to compare previous days to today’s volume spike. Other than that, I wanted to show that the EMAs were about to cross, but nothing otherwise compelling about the 30. I usually stay constrained to the 5 and 15 min chart in conjunction with the dailies.

Absolutely could happen – it would surprise me to no end, but it could happen. The strength of the downtrend (and force of it) is intense and has lasted almost unchecked. That’s quite a headwind for price to overcome.

Maybe it’s that I just can’t believe something as crucial (we’ve been led to believe) as Crude Oil which cost almost $150 a barrel six months ago could cost $40 now… or that I (we) got used to gas at $4.00 per gallon reluctantly and now can’t fathom it being $1.50.

This is playing with our minds! But price ultimately is king.

I’m just as puzzled as you are – that’s why I’m trying to read into it as much as I can and other signs seem to be pointing to bullish structures. Such is the method of accumulation in stocks – it’s smart money’s way of confusing the masses in ways that don’t seem to make sense. For example, a hideous report comes out in a stock, volume surges, though price doesn’t budge. That’s often because a singular or handful of large funds are buying aggressively into all the selling furor.

I’m unaware of major bearish news on oil at the moment.

I’m puzzled too. We’ll need to see what happens in the next few days or perhaps weeks to confirm officially, but I interpret it as bullish until proven otherwise.

I have us currently in Wave 4 in Crude and am tossing back and forth the idea that we’re either in Wave 4 of a larger impulse in the US Dollar Index… or that a complete 5 wave pattern has commenced (on the weekly charts) and thus we’re looking for an ABC. We’re sort of at critical levels where we’ll know soon which interpretation is correct. I’m leaning towards us being in a 4 in both now.

Elliott Wave 4’s unfold in a three-wave correction or ABC. I think we’ve started that fractal process here, though I didn’t draw EW counts on the chart to keep them simpler.

Let me know if this didn’t fully answer your question.

Sometimes you don’t need to over-analyze things.

I have a question about your previous post on the usd index 2 weeks ago and your preferred Elliot count.

You commented “I considered that possibility – that of an extended third – but decided that would be my alternate count should a clean ABC not form.”

I assume you meant you would be looking for an ‘abc’ correction in the coming weeks to confirm your preferred count. correct? To me, right now it looks like we’ve begun or are about to begin in ‘c’ of said ‘abc’ correction. How would keeping an eye out for a ‘abc’ correction influence your EW count? From my understanding of EW an ‘abc’ or zig-zag is also a legitimate wave 4 pattern. Do I need to study up on my Elliot, or do your eyes see something mine don’t?

Thanks and you rock.