Comments on: Comparing Cross-Market Performance for 2008 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/comparing-cross-market-performance-for-2008/ Helping traders overcome fears and emotions in trading Thu, 09 Feb 2012 14:53:15 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Corey Rosenbloom http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/comparing-cross-market-performance-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-162933 Corey Rosenbloom Wed, 07 Jan 2009 03:31:51 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/?p=3514#comment-162933 It seems great when gas falls from $4.30 a gallon to $1.50 and I'm sure we're all excited about that but prices falling too quickly isn't good either. It's a strange place to be on the other side of the sword. It seems great when gas falls from $4.30 a gallon to $1.50 and I’m sure we’re all excited about that but prices falling too quickly isn’t good either. It’s a strange place to be on the other side of the sword.

]]> By: toad37 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/comparing-cross-market-performance-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-162882 toad37 Wed, 07 Jan 2009 01:53:59 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/?p=3514#comment-162882 I hate to say it, but look for more of the same in 2009. Deflation is a bummer. :( I hate to say it, but look for more of the same in 2009. Deflation is a bummer. :(

]]> By: Corey Rosenbloom http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/comparing-cross-market-performance-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-162656 Corey Rosenbloom Tue, 06 Jan 2009 21:01:37 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/?p=3514#comment-162656 Dacian, True, I should have clarified "expectations" rather than described economies. Markets are driven more now by expectation than perceived reality. This is a global downturn and currency crosses are still quoted in relative terms. If you state that XYZ had 'relative strength' in 2008 to the S&P 500, that's great for XYZ Corp but both of them fell in real value. You might have lost $50,000 in the SPY but you only lost $40,000 in XYZ which performed 'relatively better,' though again they both fell. With everyone falling, the expectation is that the US will not fall as hard - might be true, but that is being built into price right now. Time will tell though. Dacian,

True, I should have clarified “expectations” rather than described economies. Markets are driven more now by expectation than perceived reality.

This is a global downturn and currency crosses are still quoted in relative terms.

If you state that XYZ had ‘relative strength’ in 2008 to the S&P 500, that’s great for XYZ Corp but both of them fell in real value. You might have lost $50,000 in the SPY but you only lost $40,000 in XYZ which performed ‘relatively better,’ though again they both fell.

With everyone falling, the expectation is that the US will not fall as hard – might be true, but that is being built into price right now. Time will tell though.

]]> By: dacian http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/comparing-cross-market-performance-for-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-162127 dacian Tue, 06 Jan 2009 16:45:13 +0000 http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/?p=3514#comment-162127 I agree on the speed of commodities falling. As for the USD, is not that other economies are falling harder than US (in fact most don't if you think about it). It's the market expectations that they'll do poorly, as the US is the dog and the rest the tail; that might reverse some time in the coming decades. There is also expectations the US will lead the way out of the recession, which I personally doubt. Emerging markets is the key, as our economies (I'm in Europe) and consumer is dead for years (I mean really anemic). Another aspect is the USD it actually crashed already if you look on its long term chart (and I know you did in a previous post); it spent years in a bear market (I know as well you suggest that isn't over and wave 5 is coming for it; I personally see it trade in a range for 2009). I agree on the speed of commodities falling. As for the USD, is not that other economies are falling harder than US (in fact most don’t if you think about it). It’s the market expectations that they’ll do poorly, as the US is the dog and the rest the tail; that might reverse some time in the coming decades. There is also expectations the US will lead the way out of the recession, which I personally doubt. Emerging markets is the key, as our economies (I’m in Europe) and consumer is dead for years (I mean really anemic). Another aspect is the USD it actually crashed already if you look on its long term chart (and I know you did in a previous post); it spent years in a bear market (I know as well you suggest that isn’t over and wave 5 is coming for it; I personally see it trade in a range for 2009).

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