Daily and Weekly Updating Apple AAPL Retracement for June 16

Jun 16, 2014: 10:55 AM CST

Apple shares (AAPL) continued their breakout and bull trend impulse after the late-April gap breakout and May “bull flag” retracement.

Let’s chart the current course for price, highlight the key support target, and update the trading strategies developing at the moment for Apple shares.

We’ll start with the broader Weekly Chart perspective:

For a bit of background, take a quick read of my prior update “Apple Shatters the $600 Level – Trade Planning” – see how the analysis compares with the real-world outcome.

After last week’s 7 to 1 stock split, the price levels (targets) will be different but the chart structure is the same.

In this case, Apple continued trading up into the prior swing high from early 2012 near the (current) $92.00 per share level.

Price fell just shy of the all-time high (formerly $700) into the $100 level which will be a simple magnet for price to target on any additional continuation to the upside.

I highlighted prior “over-extended swing” events where price poked through the upper or lower Bollinger Band – price is currently overextended and spiking through the upper Bollinger Band with a weekly sell candle.

This sets the stage for a retracement to lower levels – and for these targets, we turn to the Daily Chart:

Note the lengthy Triangle Price Pattern that developed through most of 2014 so far ahead of the impulsive (buy signal) breakout going into May.

Price retraced in a logical Bull Flag Price Pattern through May to trigger a second breakout or retracement (flag) buy signal above the $86.00 per share level.

We’ve seen a continuation of the trend and we now face a logical higher frame pullback as we focus our attention on a “make or break” level on the Daily Chart.

Note the confluence of the rising 20 day EMA and $90.00 per share ’round number’ reference level – it will be our focal point for trade strategies this week.

Any support-bounce or rally up off this level triggers an aggressive “buy into an strong, uptrending, overbought trend” situation with the expectation that the bullish trend and flood of money into this stock will continue.

However, stop-losses will likely be triggered (including ‘take profit’ orders) as bears enter on a trigger-break under the $90 key support level.  Apple is short-term bearish under $90 to target a small swing toward the $86.00 level (which would play into the weekly chart ‘pullback’ logic).

For now, focus your attention on $90.00 per share and any strong bullish bounce, or impulsive bearish break to determine what style of swing or intraday strategies to deploy.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

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