In a somewhat surprising outcome, Crude Oil dips to a new swing low at the same time the US Stock Market rallies back toward all-time highs.

This disconnect is interesting as we turn our attention to the bend in the intermarket relationship.

Generally Crude Oil and Stocks exhibit a positive correlation (they both move in the same direction).

However a disconnect took hold from June into July as Crude Oil traded steadily lower while stocks advanced amazingly higher to all-time highs.

Despite positive momentum divergences on the hourly chart, Crude Oil continued its short-term downtrend toward – and now under – the $45.00 per barrel price target.

The commodity has declined from its recent peak above $52.00 per barrel to the current $44.00 level.

What looked like a possible bullish reversal up has now turned into a sharp sell-swing and breakdown lower.

Focus your attention on the $45.00 per barrel target and look to play the swing AWAY FROM this key pivot.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).