Comments on: Elliott Wave Analysis on the Euro

By: Bill Spencer

Bill Spencer — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 14:45:53 +0000

Hi, Is it posssible we have a reverse triangle going on? I’m inclined to agree with the general concensus of an upward movement, but if this were a reverse or expanding triangle at this point in the upward movement, I think it would serve as quite a surprise to those going long when the triangle concluded with downside movement. Question. Why does the upward movement have to get so high as the 140 range to confirm upside movement. We’re at 134 today. That’s a 600 pip differential from this morning. Bill

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 16:04:37 +0000

David,

We’re clearly at an inflection point, and there are certain things – like breaking through $125 or above $140 – that would officially invalidate one of these views and lend credence to the other. But yes, the $125 level should hold as support but if it doesn’t, then it’s likely new lows are on the way as Wave 5 materializes/continues probably soon after the break.

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 16:02:51 +0000

Anon,

True, and there are end-of-year cyclicalities that could come into play as well (usually the US Stock market rallies via the “Christmas” or “Santa Claus” Rally which could also affect currencies & commodities, particularly as the commodities are correlating with the US Equity Market.

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 16:01:41 +0000

Andrew,

Indeed – I had overlooked that. 2 was a simple wave and – if we’re in 4 which it now looks like we are – then it is a complex corrective wave as expected by the guidelines.

In that case, we would be looking for a Wave 5 to materialize perhaps shortly.

By: David

David — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 23:52:17 +0000

Another way of looking at this is if the Eurodollar busts and closes above the 1.32 mark then wave 5 is complete if we bounce of this area ” again ” then wave 5 is to come. .. thoughts ?

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 22:02:35 +0000

we probably wont see the trend return until Obama starts in the white house next year as this will mark the start of a new presidential cycle on the stock market.

By: Andrew Stanton

Andrew Stanton — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 15:26:12 +0000

One other thing I forgot to mention: since wave 2 was a simple zig-zag, wave 4 would be expected to be a complex pattern such as a triangle just starting wave d?

By: David

David — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 14:34:50 +0000

Hi Corey,

I believe the triangle was wave 4 on the eurodollar. Check out my article linked in my signature.

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 02:32:29 +0000

Anon,

Absolutely – you could make that argument. Due to the Fractal nature of Elliott, what I didn’t do was show a monthly chart which could have added additional information.

This entire impulse on the weekly chart could be part of a larger wave 1 impulse and the down move could very well be a Wave 2 complex corrective move down.

Regarding multiple timeframes, yes – impulse works its way up, not down, meaning structure on the smaller frame will precede the larger frame.

The ‘death cross’ structure on the daily chart occurred in August at $156, while the corresponding weekly signal came in October at $147.

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 02:29:05 +0000

Ken,

Thank you for reading! I was quite skeptical of Elliott at first but I had to go into detail for the CMT program and used R. Prechter’s (and A. Frost’s) book and then tried to apply it to various chart examples and then was hooked.

Best of luck! Let me know if I can be of assistance.