Comments on: Elliott Wave Count on the CRB Commodity Index

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:36:59 +0000

William,

I ran the Elliott on the BDI for you in today’s post.
Thank you for the inspiration for the post.

By: William Davies

William Davies — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 12:19:13 +0000

I would be very interested to see if you could use the Elliott Wave Theory analysis to see where the Baltic Dry Index is likely to move going forward. As this index on dry shipping cargo rates is a lead indicator it would be great to see the relationship between this and any commodity index you are following, whether it is the CRB or RICI.

By: BillyD

BillyD — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 02:55:37 +0000

Corey;

I am not an Elliot waver but it looks like an inverse H & S 340 – 360 with a break of 360 leading to a move to 380.

Billy

By: Andrew Stanton

Andrew Stanton — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 00:26:02 +0000

I’d have to give the edge to Corey’s count since the second count features an awfully small B wave that doesn’t even show up on its relevant time frame: the weekly chart. If wave 4 is beginning then expect a complex pattern to contrast with the simple wave 2 that most likely makes it up to the level of the fourth wave of lesser degree. One other thing, since both charts cover such a large price range they would be better viewed on a semi-log scale.

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 23:47:11 +0000

I could see that count too, with A being a fractal 5; B being an ABC; C being also a fractal 5 which gives us a classic Zig-Zag.

Still, looks like – at least on the monthly chart – a counter-wave up is yet to come soon.

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 23:45:30 +0000

Patriot,

Indeed – to me a positive divergence is a piece of the puzzle and not the puzzle itself. It’s only an indicator or what could be brewing under the surface – price action must confirm it with a reversal and then a EMA break. The same structure could indeed play out the same way here, but it’s worth noting the possibility of a change, however temporary.

You’re right too – this whole chart is a lesson in measured moves or bear-style flag examples. Could indeed be seeing one play out again but that lengthy divergence gives me pause.

By: J. Livermore

J. Livermore — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 18:14:19 +0000

Corey, my count on the CRB daily is a 5-wave A (not a 1) to 380, a 3-wave B (not a 2) back up to 400 — then a 5-wave C down to 235.

The 5-waves in the C-leg suggest that the move downward has ended. That’s the big difference in the counts.

By: Patriot

Patriot — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 17:28:08 +0000

Corey – many analyst are pointing to the positive MACD divergence however let us not forget there was similar Pos div in late July to early August (as seen on your chart above with minor 3 down to minor 5 waves)which resulted in further price declines…currently I see a classic AB=CD pattern developing almost identical to the AB=CD pattern from mid-August to October (fractal?) which is bearish.