http://blog.afraidtotrade.com Helping traders overcome fears and emotions in trading Sun, 11 May 2008 16:24:24 +0000 http://backend.userland.com/rss092 en Happy Mother's Day!  Let's take a quick view at the Dow Jones Index, along with two key sectors which I'll put in focus today - Materials and Healthcare. First, the Dow Jones ($INDU): The market failed at the resistance provided by the (now) falling 200 day moving average, and from prior support ... http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/market-status-with-materials-and-healthcare/ The US Dollar Index staged an impressive rally on the daily charts, but is currently failing to surmount resistance via the strong 20 period moving average on the weekly chart. Notice how the falling 20 period moving average (exponential) has served significantly as overhead resistance, thwarting any rallies ever since late ... http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/dollar-bumps-weekly-resistance/ How can you increase your % win rate for your trades by adjusting one of two parameters?  Would it be worth it for your overall profitability? I've been doing a fair amount of trading system development and optimization thanks to TradeStation, Tradecision, and Excel and have found some surprising initial results. For ... http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/how-to-increase-your-win-rate-easily/ Apple Inc (AAPL) showed some interesting patterns today on its intraday chart - I thought you might like to take a closer look. The day started with an overnight gap down that didn't fill, although price achieved a 50% retracement. Gaps that fail to fill can lead to larger trend moves in ... http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/interesting-intraday-action-in-aapl/ Crude Oil tapped above $124 intraday today, marking yet another new record high for the crucial commodity. Is there a potential way to analyze and trade this development with Market Club's Trade Triangle Technology? Adam Hewison today released a new brief info-movie for your benefit. I thought it was ... http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/crude-oil-and-trade-triangles/ Do you know where commodities have been lately? Does it matter to the market? Let's take a look at a few select commodity indexes to see the new highs made on some of these indexes today. First, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index: Notice the extreme price movement that created the ... http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/commodities-race-to-new-highs/ The $VIX (Volatility Index) is bouncing off new lows for 2008 in a sign that traders and funds have become less fearful in the current market environment. Perhaps they are unwinding their hedges or engaging in some sort of risk-seeking or 'cooling off' period, but it is interesting to note that ... http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/vix-off-2008-new-lows/ I was quite impressed by the strength of the bears in swiping the US Indexes lower on Wednesday, giving the bulls only a marginal chance for any sort of retracement.  I recommend saving today's charts for the files under "strange price action" for future review. Let's look first at the DIA: Price ... http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/intraday-foibles/ Are the Indexes at Support or Resistance?  Today's action would lend to the "Resistance" camp, but let's take a closer look. Let's start with the daily chart of the Dow Jones Index: With this chart, I have Resistance plotted via two areas: 1.  The declining 200 day moving average 2.  The horizontal trendline via ... http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/indexes-at-support-or-resistance/ Although it’s not discussed extensive, the Yield Curve has now normalized to levels that have historically preceded large bullish moves for the overall market. The last time this pattern occurred was in 2003. Bill Luby at VIX and More recently identified this pattern as well with a good, brief analysis ... http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/current-yield-curve-turns-bullish/