Fibonacci Confluence and Projection on NIFTY Index

Mar 15, 2009: 8:52 PM CST

I thought I’d do something a little different in my weekly take of India’s “Nifty” Stock Index ($CNXN) and describe a Fibonacci Confluence Resistance Zone and also run a Fibonacci Price Projection Point as well.

“Nifty” Confluence Fibonacci Grid:

Without giving away too many of my secrets, or the method behind the madness, we see key Confluence Fibonacci overhead resistance at the 3,580 level which also corresponds currently with the falling 50 week EMA. Should price break-out above the current range and 20 week EMA (both of which could be extremely difficult), we would expect significant supply coming in at that level.

I was going to write another daily update, but the analysis is the same as last week, as price still remains in a consolidation.

Now let’s really do something interesting and try to make a Fibonacci Price Projection low using advanced Fibonacci methods.

“Nifty” Fibonacci Price Projection:

Fibonacci grids are drawn off the 6,300 truncated high down to key support levels in the past.  A confluence zone was identified and then the vertical distance was measured from the peak down to this confluence level, and then I came forward and projected this same vertical distance (the size of the rectangle is irrelevant) down (subtracted) from the confluence zone (at 4,100) to get a final price projection target of 1,970.

I’m not necessarily saying we’ll go down to that target, but if price begins to fall from here, the 1,970 level would be an excellent area to watch for advanced Fibonacci support.

In summary, we have Confluence Fibonacci Resistance at 3,580, and a Fibonacci Price Projection possible Low at 1,970.  It’s up to the market to determine which area it will test next, but – unless the trend and structure (via moving averages and swing lows and highs) changes, odds as I seem them are slightly more favorable that we break-down to test the 2,000 level.

As always, your comments and thoughts (and links to other sites) are welcome.

Corey Rosenbloom
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter:  http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade
Register (free) for the Afraid to Trade.com Blog to stay updated

8 Comments

8 Responses to “Fibonacci Confluence and Projection on NIFTY Index”

  1. chartsandcoffee Says:

    My weekly forecast is up – http://chartsandcoffee.blogspot.com/2009/03/sunday-night-coffee-3152009.html

  2. Corey Rosenbloom Says:

    C&C,

    Looks good! Glad to see you using Fibonacci as well!

  3. gawed Says:

    wow.. i understood.. umm.. nothing? jajajajaj. damn fibonacci he always does this in any subject you hear his name at!

  4. Corey Rosenbloom Says:

    haha

    My best friend is actually in Italy right now and I told him to visit Fibonacci’s statue in Pisa and take a picture for me.

    I tried to put a quick summary of the key price points at the end. Leave it for me to do the heavy number lifting.

  5. pratik Says:

    hey man cool…. fibonacci really very helpful at times….
    well corey please help me a bit…. what is the MACD setup you are using …. is 12.26.9….
    please reply here even or mail me….
    thnx a lot

  6. MARKETBHAVISHYA Says:

    http://www.marketbhavishya.com/stock.htm

    Just visit daily ,nothing else …real class and best in India…its open challenge !!

  7. Corey Rosenbloom Says:

    Pratik,

    Glad to have you!

    It’s using settings 3, 10, and 16.

  8. Anonymous Says:

    hi Croney ……

    First of all thanks you very much….

    I’ve one query regarding EMA …

    What EMA combination you use for Analysis .please suggest