I’ll try to do an updated post to move the discussion forward there.

That 61.8% level (off the 1982 lows) has come into play and is a critical level to hold for sure.

Perhaps, but that’s a difficult thing to state with a large audience. Even Prechter – Mr. Modern-Day Elliott himself – is stating we’re about to hit a big ABC up… but what he’s NOT saying publicly is that this 5-wave structure down is not the completion of C, but only Wave 1 of C. Think about that. I would suspect the ultimate S&P target would be in the 100 level if he’s right. Is anyone saying that publicly? CAN anyone say that publicly?

I’m leaning more towards the “We’re still in 3″ camp but am just not ready to make that my official/preferred count at the moment. I’ll switch when the time comes.

In regards to the end of the bear, it feels like people are starting to catch on that we’re in trouble. Even people/acquaintances locally who know I do “stock market stuff” are asking me questions and are scared.

I don’t think the fear that marks bottoms has set in yet.

No, I don’t think the bear market ends here. The best-case scenario is a long trading range to form at these levels. There’s just too much that’s gone wrong.

That being said, the next likely play is for an ABC up.

Is it…

ABC up of 4 of (3) of C?
ABC up after the (5) of C is finished?
ABC up of 2 of (C)?

Under all counts, we do an ABC up. My guess is we’ll know then which ABC we’re doing.

I don’t see a problem with different interpretations. Each Elliott user should have two or three counts of his own to invest/trade with the preferred count and manage risk with the alternate counts.

After if all, if Elliott worked 100%, everyone would be doing it!

That being said, I note that we’re awful close to another momentum confirmation / new low on the S&P 500 dailies. If that happens I think the 3/10 is arguing that we’re still in big Wave 3, not 5. Obviously this is alarmingly bearish and your reluctance to make that call is appropriate. On the other hand, as long as everyone wants to say the bear market is almost over, it’s not, right?

I’m still open to that possibility but don’t want to come out publicly with such a bearish final target until I am certain it is the dominant picture. It won’t be long before we know for sure which count is the preferred.

Elliott isn’t “the answer” to me but is just an indicator that must be combined into the bigger picture much like the RSI, Stochastic, 3/10, etc. It gives structure and signals but isn’t absolute. I find it helpful to alert me to possibilities but not ever certainties. That being said, the current structure has conformed almost perfectly to the EW textbook which is amazing.

You were an early pioneer to take up such sophisticated work before it really became mainstream. Behavioral Finance is gaining in popularly and – I believe – so is the Wave Principle. That’s so interesting – I’d love to learn some of your findings from your earlier research.

I devoted part of my thesis in Grad school in the early 80’s on market psychology (Behavioral Economics nowadays)and used some EW counts as info. It was at Wharton and my Professor didn’t understand it. It wasn’t Jeremy Siegel but the Prof thought it was voodoo and lacked the necessary statistical analysis to support my claims. He was partly correct, yet, I guess after all of Robert Schiller’s work and the demise of the EMT, perhaps many of these Professor’s will begin to look at TA in a different light.

To me, it is still a tool that must be used in conjunction with other variables. Some may include, fundamental analysis, quantitative analysis (valuation metrics)and credit measures. Nonetheless, it is rare when the EW count is as clear has it has been!

Great job and keep up the good work.