Has Gold Broken Upside Resistance?

Jul 7, 2008: 11:11 AM CST

Last week, gold prices broke a set of resistance trendlines, and could be headed higher.  Let’s look at the chart to see the recent developments.

Gold prices (per ounce) daily:

Whether you draw the longer trendline off the closing (or even intraday) highs from mid-March, or of the most recent two swing highs, price indeed broke above both trendlines and above the key 20 and 50 period moving averages, which are currently rising and (technically) in the most bullish orientation possible (20 above the 50 which is above the 200).

Per request, I have added the ‘legend’ or prices section on each chart from StockCharts.com so that you can see exactly where the prices of the key 20, 50, and 200 period moving averages exist at that moment.

Gold could come back and retest the breakout point around $910 per ounce (which is also the confluence of moving average support) before headed higher, but should it break $900 per ounce, odds would then strongly favor a retest of the rising 200 day moving average currently at $870 per ounce.

With Crude Oil having such a stratospheric rise last week, oil could be poised for some sort of retracement, pull-back, or consolidation, which would likely correspond with lower gold prices, especially if the US Dollar Index – which fell last week – strengthened.

Keep your eye closely fixed on the crude oil, gold, and US Dollar markets for clues about what could happen in the broader stock market.

3 Comments

3 Responses to “Has Gold Broken Upside Resistance?”

  1. Richard Says:

    $Gold fell 0.51% in the one day of trading since you prepared this report; it fell as $WTIC, West Texas Intermediate Crude, fell 2.7%.

    Since June 16, 2008, when the yen carry traders, heeded the advice of the Bank of Japan, that inflation poses an investment risk, and sold out of the BRICS, EEB, they have been investing in gold, as is seen in the ratio of gold to oil, $GOLD:$WTIC, rising.

    Other evidence of an investment demand for gold comes from the chart of the gold ETF, GLD, relative to the overall US stock market, VTI, GLD:VTI: it shows that since May 1, 2008, an investment demand for gold has, once again, grown strong. It was then that institutional investors traded out of the high paying financial stocks, PEY, and joined those using the yen carry trade, who had gone long the CRB, RJI, to also go long the CRB, RJI, and gold, GLD, as well.

    Your chart above shows that “gold broke out five days ago” that is on June 27, 2008.

    I recommend that one dollar cost average buy gold in the gold ETF, GLD, in a trust account and not a brokerage account; and that one buy gold at BullionVault.com and GoldIsMoney.com

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