Comments on: Health Care XLV and The Massachusetts Senate Race Tuesday

By: Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 08:33:16 +0000

I figured Mr. Brown would win with the enthusiasm and momentum on his side – still a shock that Massachusetts elected a Republican Senator but it is what it is!

I figure that conservative or moderate Democrats – after seeing the gubernatorial losses in New Jersey (Corzine) and Virginia – will be 'running scared' and will be less likely to pass Health Care, and their votes will be lost and refuse the “jam it down the throats” approach.

Difficult political calculations for them.

Possibly – Obama needs to pivot to the Economy, Jobs, Deficit, etc or else we're looking at a Republican take-over of the House… and perhaps the Senate in November… just like 1994.

By: Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 02:33:16 +0000

I figured Mr. Brown would win with the enthusiasm and momentum on his side – still a shock that Massachusetts elected a Republican Senator but it is what it is!

Difficult political calculations for them.

Possibly – Obama needs to pivot to the Economy, Jobs, Deficit, etc or else we're looking at a Republican take-over of the House… and perhaps the Senate in November… just like 1994.

By: denverdjs

denverdjs — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 12:18:04 +0000

I think the timing of the State of Union next week is a strategic decision on the part of the Administration. They will pressure the House to accept the already passed Senate bill and fix it with reconciliation.

The House will get the votes, I think. For any that don't want to vote, they'll take something over nothing. And for any votes they lose, they will gain from several Dems that didn't vote for the initial measure (e.g. blue dogs in house that preferred Senate measure).

Obama will pivot immediately next week to a populist message going after banks and talking deficit reduction. The Dems will try to marginalize GOP talking points for the rest of the year in mid-term run up.

By: Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 21:10:06 +0000

I'm not sure Democrats will try to expedite passage so soon, particularly since moderate and conservative Democrats might be afraid of losing their seat in November if the bill is passed with such lightning speed after a 'referendum' election failed.

Tough situation, though.

What I'm reading/hearing on the news is that the House - remember which passed the bill 220-215 (218 votes are required) - does not have the votes to pass the Senate bill, and three defections kills the compromise bill.

With a Brown win, it looks like they'll have to rewrite the bill to be more moderate and pick-up a few moderate Republicans (Snowe, etc).

By: denverdjs

denverdjs — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 16:20:08 +0000

Me thinks that the Democrats won't let a Brown win doom the bill. Andrew Sullivan has a post on his blog about a few options the Democrats can resort to should Brown win.
1) Quickly finish house-senate negotiations and pass the finished bill before Brown is seated.
2) Have the House pass the Senate bill “as-is” and stipulate that another bill resolving the conflicts be passed in the future using reconciliation (only requiring a simple majority vote).
3) Go back to GOP Senator Snowe for support of Senate Bill. All of her substantive objections to the original bill have been removed.

By: Tonloc

Tonloc — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 11:25:31 +0000

great post. I hadn't seen much on the blogs out there but I see it a great market tell

By: mikevadon

mikevadon — Sun, 17 Jan 2010 23:43:35 +0000

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