I added a little blurb in today’s Intraday Trading post. I don’t know the reason, but suspect it has to do either with optimism on the “Big 3 Auto” bailout, market happiness that the Fed will be cutting rates this week, or funds not wanting to hold short positions ahead of the Fed meeting – probably a combo of all the above. Or from a technical (non-news) perspective, the day was oversold on a triple positive momentum divergence.

My guess is that it’s some sort of combo of these possibilities but we often never know the real cause of market moves until they’re well over… usually right as the news comes out.

Ultimately, I’m bullish but I don’t forecast targets usually. The way I play the game is analyzing the current information and trying to project only the next probable swing and set targets for that swing only. It’s far easier than making long-term projections and then having new information change your forecast.

Ultimately, I believed when price hit $40 that the next likely swing was up and was able to trade that bias. I ultimately think we’ll break above the averages and get some sort of decent counter-trend reversal, but in tactical trading, the average is often a price target which allows you to exit and see what happens as price tests this average.

So, yes, I see crude above $50 soon but also recognize that the $50 level provides resistance. Perhaps we get a swing back down that doesn’t violate $40 and then on the next swing up, we break through those levels, but we haven’t done so yet at least.

Thanks Aly

Depends on what you mean. With inverse and normal funds, it’s never too late. The collapse of one trend is the birth of another.

The USD Index hit $82 today and crude hit resistance at $50 and swiftly pulled down. Will we see it get over $50 in your opinion?

Thanks, and keep up the great charting