Inside the Daily Chart of Crude Oil July 12

Jul 12, 2009: 7:41 PM CST

Crude Oil has fallen sharply from its recent peak near $75 per barrel.  Let’s take a quick look at the daily chart to see a possible Elliott Wave count as well as note a key Fibonacci area to watch.

(Click for full-size image)

This is a chart from this week’s “Intermarket Technical Report” which subscribers receive each Sunday evening for structure and opportunites for the trading week ahead, as well as longer-term plays that are possible.

Looking here, we see that an A and B corrective wave seem to have completed at the $75 level highs.  I’ve fractalized parts of these waves to show the internal structure.

With the trend reversing to the downside and price breaking daily EMA support, odds have shifted to favor lower prices.

However, a quick note that we formed a doji (reversal) candle on Thursday and price has inflected up off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (at $59.17), odds seem to be indicating a retracement move (perhaps fractal wave iv) that could target the $62.50 area might be the ‘next likely swing.’

Refer back to my earlier “Top in Crude Oil” post as well as Adam Hewison’s video “How Low Can Crude Oil Go?” to see the larger structure.

Subscribers to my “Weekly Intermarket Technical Analysis” piece receive top-down analysis beginning with the monthly structure, moving down to the weekly, and then analyzing the daily structure, highlighting levels to watch and trading opportunities along the way.  I examine not only Crude Oil, but the S&P 500, 10-Year Notes, Gold, and the US Dollar Index which is ideal for swing and position traders of ETFs or futures.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

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