Intraday Idealized Trade Locations in SPY July 9

Jul 9, 2009: 6:54 PM CST

I wanted to show a chart of some of the better trading opportunities that presented themselves during today’s intraday trading, so as to serve as a reference to see more examples of these trades and patterns.  Here’s today’s structure (Rounded Reversal) that offered a limited number of good set-ups.


(Click for Full-Size Image)

We began with an overnight gap which was quickly filled (first opportunity), then we entered a choppy patch for an hour.

What I deemed was the “Best Trade of the Day” came in just before 11:30 with the six-points of confluence (Candles, EMAs, TICK Divergence, Confluence Fibonacci – not shown here – and yesterday’s close level).

The hammer and then large bullish bar after it should have been an obvious low-risk buy signal to play for a possible new high (remember, the trend structure here was officially ‘up.’).

We then rose to form a consolidation triangle which led to a brief afternoon breakout at 2:30 EST, but it did not give much satisfication, and in fact the intraday high was formed shortly after on three long-legged dojis and a slight TICK Divergence (which was more evident on the 1-min chart).

We then formed a downward move which pulled back to form a “Bearish Engulfing” Candle at resistance, and shortly after that, a “Cradle Sell” when the 20 and 50 EMA ‘crossed over’ bearishly.

The “Rounded Reversal” and bearish cross (as well as the Cradle) could carry over into the next trading day, which now appears to have a bearish bias looking at this timeframe.

The full report and detailed explanation of how the day progressed (so as to learn trading tactics, how to identify structure, how to locate trade set-ups, etc) is included in tonight’s 5-page PDF of our “Idealized Trades” Intraday Service which includes an analysis of the SPY 30-min chart with more insights into the structure unfolding and possible pathway ahead (along with levels to watch for confirmation/non-confirmation).

I also provide a “Teaching Moment” in each day’s summary – today, I described how to identify the hidden level of Fibonacci Confluence (explain the method) that was valuable information as the day progressed and price successfully held this area.c

Please check it out, along with the other services at the new Premium Section of Afraid to Trade.com.

Remember, the more you see these trades and watch/study structure developing each day, the better and more confident you’ll be to recognize and then trade these repeating set-ups when you see them in real time no matter what stock or ETF (or futures contract) you are trading.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

5 Comments

5 Responses to “Intraday Idealized Trade Locations in SPY July 9”

  1. Jango Says:

    I wonder if you would be willing to share with us how successful your methods have been lately?

  2. Corey Rosenbloom, CMT Says:

    Jango,

    I've been keeping the formal service privately for mentorship clients and myself since February 2009 (although have been writing up my own summaries since 2007) though have added 'prediction' as a formal additional component which has been well-received.

    The reports are now public and permanently archived for subscribers, and all reports from April are archived where subscribers can access them.

    Since the service began last Wednesday,here is a summary of the following 'predictions' of daily structure (holding specific targets only for members):

    June 29th: “Due to a completed 5-wave fractal Elliott Wave move up which has resulted in a “Three Push” Reversal Pattern (triple negative divergence in the 3/10 Oscillator) along with an obvious and unavoidable 'massive' TICK and Breadth (market internal) Divergence as well as a negative volume divergence… I would say odds strongly favor a precipitous fall from these levels” I also showed this on the blog – we did get a large gap the next morning.

    July 1st: “This structure – barring anything unforeseen – should continue into Thursday's session with a bearish bias.” Thursday was indeed a large down-day.

    July 2nd: “15-min structure shows new TICK and Breadth Low occurred today, hinting at price weakness ahead.” I also showed a daily chart of the SPY with a highlighted target zone which was hit. The structure carried forward over the weekend for a gap down and bearish day that turned 'rounded reversal' at the close.

    July 6th: Quote: “Although we had a long weekend, the bias carrying forward from Thursday's close (as I mentioned) was for that of a continuation move down – look closely at the bearish move down as seen on the left side of the chart prior to the morning gap. Structure carries forward – that's why these reports are important.” No specific target/bias was given.

    July 7th: “We could get a decent bounce off this critical support level so do be aware of that possibility. If bulls can't manage to bounce price off this level, we could see a quick move down as all eyes are focused on the 875 level as a “Make it or Break it” zone.” Market initially went lower then we're currently in the 'battle' zone now as all eyes watch this level.

  3. Steve-O Says:

    Two additional confluences today that helped me make money were the floor pivots in SPY: $87.95 was CPP at the 11:20 am low, and $88.89 was R1 at the 2:30pm high.

    Read your blog daily, awesome. Thanks

  4. CJ Says:

    I noticed that between 5/1 and 5/4 there is a small gap 88.21-.38. Do you think that another break and close below this and 88.15 low of 5/15 would confirm we are headed lower? If not, what price floor penetration would be your ultimate indication?

    Great work Corey!

  5. CJ Says:

    I noticed that between 5/1 and 5/4 there is a small gap 88.21-.38. Do you think that another break and close below this and 88.15 low of 5/15 would confirm we are headed lower? If not, what price floor penetration would be your ultimate indication?

    Great work Corey!