Comments on: Just How Low Can the Dow Jones Go

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 22:17:08 +0000

what do you think of today’s market? 12/01/08

By: Mark

Mark — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 03:49:11 +0000

Corey,

Just checked in on your site after “losing” it from a computer crash. I enjoy your commentary and thank you for the detailed approach you take. Through my analysis, Friday I have taken a long YM @7560 2lots on a swing hold trade with my stop at 7380. I feel better about this position after reviewing you post:) Thanks again for the great work.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 03:25:47 +0000

Since wave 5 of (3) is an expanding diagonal, if it did complete today, we will have a sharp rally. Wave (4) will retrace back to DJI 9500 area, the end of wave 4 of wave (3), per Prechter’s guidance.
An alternative count is that this expanding diagonal is only wave one of wave 5 of (3).
There may be some other ways to count. So I will watch carefully next week. If the market continues to rally, it confirms wave (3) have completed.

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 02:46:20 +0000

Upon closer inspection, you’re 100% correct and I missed the classification of this impulse as an expanding diagonal which is clear once you know what to look for. It’s amazing how accurately this structure follows that of Prechter’s work and basic … or slightly intermediate … concepts in EWT.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 00:19:16 +0000

Yes, I saw your update. For a normal five wave impulse, wave four can not overlap with wave 1. But my observation is that this wave 5 of (3) is an “expanding diagonal” which appears as wave 5 of an impulse or a wave C of a zigzag or a flat, per Robert Prechter. in an expanding diagonal, wave four must overlap with wave 1.

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 00:05:15 +0000

Yes, and unfortunately, Buffett (or at least his stock) is taking it hard on the chin. Berkshire stood at $145,000 per share in September and just yesterday, dipped below $80,000, losing almost half its value in two months.

Your thought prompted me to post on the potential structure of the current Fractal 5 on the 60-min chart. Check it out and see if you’d like me to add any insight or anything. I’m just trying to use basic Elliott rules as I understand them and not get too fancy with it. I so surprised at how effective Elliott is at times – I mean textbook-patterns playing out. Fascinating.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 23:52:16 +0000

Thanks. Wave 3 was very sharp. It makes sense wave 5 is shorter or a failure. Hope after wave (4), the wave (5) is a failure. If wave (5) goes down too deep, the expanded flat ABC may not work. Maybe wishful thinking. This bear market is unusual. Not many people have experience with this type of market. Warren Buffet was only a kid in 1929.

By: Corey Rosenbloom

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 23:17:16 +0000

If you go deeper say to the 15 or 30 min frame, I would agree that fractal 5 completed I think actually the minute I posted this blog because the market surged strongly afterward. It would make sense that 5 would be ending in this vicinity which would complete the monsterous wave 3 impulse down which will be a relief. Let’s see how next week’s action trades but if indeed fractal 5 completed, we can go ahead and buy in here and place stops beneath today’s intraday lows for a major reward/risk relationship provide 4 does take us up to around 10,000 or just beyond (but not into Wave 1 territory).

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 22:37:18 +0000

Cory, my count is the same as yours. My chart shows the current wave 5 is an expanding diagonal, which started on Nov. 4 and possibly completed intrady today. If so wave (4) started today. Do you agree with my observation?