Link: The Market and Your Opinion

Aug 18, 2010: 12:09 PM CST

I wanted to share a quick link to a post written by Mike Bellafiore of SMB Capital entitled simply:

“The Market Doesn’t Care about  Your Opinion.”

This is something we all as traders learn, but it is a helpful reminder, especially for new and eager traders, that the market is bigger than any of us and doesn’t really care if we’re bullish, bearish, or neutral on any position at any time.

Mike shares a personal story of a trader on the desk who voiced the statement:

“I had conviction that [the stock price] would reach my target.”

Conviction is fine – it can be helpful – but not if it blinds you to new information that has developed in the stock, or if the situation has changed after the time you put on the trade.

Trade Management – what goes on between your entry and exit – is one of the most difficult skills to manage as a trader.  You can make it easier if you don’t get blinded by bias or opinions that block access to new information, such as negative divergences, opposite trendline breaks, or other “things that shouldn’t happen” while in a position.

Concluding comment from Mike:

“Professional traders make good risk/reward trades and are not concerned with the outcome.   Nor are they under the delusion that they really know where a stock or the market is headed.”

It’s a good story and good reminder that we trade the probabilities, not opinions, of stocks or ETFs in play.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

1 Comment

One Response to “Link: The Market and Your Opinion”

  1. Jeff Carroll Says:

    Thanks for all your words on this subject, Corey. It's always fascinating how our biases, both known and unknown, impact our trading. I'm transitioning to full time trading over the next 6 months – 1 year, and this lesson is one that I continually repeat to myself–thanks to the loss of too much money and pride due to I'm-sure-I'm-right-and-the-market-is-wrong thinking when I started trading 10 years ago.

    Still, I write down my if-then statements on a whiteboard at the beginning of the day and run through a confirmation checklist before I buy, just to be sure.