Comments on: Looking Back and Forward on the SP500 Slow Creeper Trend

By: Rising Trendlines - The Only Thing that Matters Anymore? | Afraid to Trade.com Blog

Wed, 14 Apr 2010 16:51:06 +0000

[...] March 5: “Looking Back and Forward on the S&P 500 Creeper Trend” [...]

By: Bob

Bob — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 22:30:49 +0000

Hey Corey...
Some conflicting measured move projections... hoping you might add some clarity.

Off the Feb 5th low to the Feb high, a measured move projection targets $116.10;

If one goes back to the early Feb. bottom, price formed a bear flag pattern, which contained a H&S pattern. The failure of that H&S pattern looks to be the "start" of the move (rally). Using this as a starting point, a measured move projection targets $114.10;

Off the late Feb low, price rallied in a fractal five wave pattern up and formed a triangle at the top. The break of that triangle points towards further upside. A measured move price projection here, points towards a target of $115.88.

So, I see three distinctive measured move price targets... can you offer perspective on these and how to weigh there respective significance?

Thanks! Bob

By: Bob

Bob — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 16:30:49 +0000

By: n2thezonez

n2thezonez — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 23:56:02 +0000

One potential counterpoint on the chart:

The 3/10 Histogram divergence a month ago proved meaningful. Another such divergence is present today.

By: wanessafruas

wanessafruas — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 23:14:16 +0000

EW makes me very confused. Always a ziz-zag, impulsive wave with a-b-c-d-e fractal. Lots of counting and finally what we have? A new label! Do not u think, Corey?

By: Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 17:37:36 +0000

Elliott Wave is one of many ways to forecast the future and trade/monitor price. Even when combining divergences in momentum, volume, and breadth, the market has continued rising.

As a trader, we have to take in account the reality of the market, which – as I've been stating since mid-last year – has been thwarting the best-laid bearish plans (numerous times) and those who have been nimble to have picked up on this pattern have either prevented shorting or – aggressive ones have profited from it, especially intraday.

It goes back to what I mentioned to Terry and is so true in all forms of trading – price, not opinion, is key. And as Larry Pesavento so eloquently titled his book, “Trade What You See, Not What You Believe.”

By: terlyn

terlyn — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 17:33:49 +0000

Of course, this is a setup for a double top.

By: Doug Jones

Doug Jones — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 17:31:05 +0000

Elliott Wave has been wrong for about 6 months now. I am one of those bears(shorts) that has fueled the popped stops rally for 7 times now. I am cancelling my Elliott wave subscription.

By: Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 17:18:07 +0000

That's true, Terry!

Any break to new 2010 highs invalidates that count, and if we look to the recent past, it looks like price is set to test or break to a new high… if history repeats.

But that's the benefit of being an intraday trader – you're able to trade price action and unexpected moves that are painful at best to swing traders. Price (and supply/demand) is king!

By: terlyn

terlyn — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 17:05:18 +0000

Let's see which is more accurate…on the DOW, Elliott Wave International has called 105380 as the end of the countertrend wave 2 up.

Trade what you see always! As you have said multiple times.