Monitoring March Confluence Support in Silver

Mar 5, 2012: 6:53 PM CST

Despite its recent drop, Silver current rests above a key confluence support price level.

Let’s identify this level and develop a game-plan for whether this support level holds… or fails.

Here’s the Weekly Structure with a Fibonacci Grid:

Silver developed a downtrend after spiking into the $50.00 per ounce area.  Since then, price has been on it way to find value at lower levels.

However, the recent 2012 action broke not just the falling weekly EMAs, but also the falling “bull flag” style trendline all near the $33.00 per ounce level.

Now, we see the critical importance – at least from the chart perspective – of the $33.00 confluence support pivot.

It serves as the underside of the falling “flag” trendline, the 38.2% large-scale Fibonacci Retracement, and the crossing of the 20 and 50 week EMAs.

As usual, the Daily Chart clarifies the short-term picture and also reveals another Fibonacci Level at $33.00:

We see the short-term Fibonacci Retracement grid in terms of the recent upside action in 2012, and the 38.2% upside retracement rests almost exactly at $33.00 per ounce.

To make matters more interesting, the 50 day EMA also rests near $33.00 – at $33.26 currently.

Price stalled/reversed from the upper 61.8% Fibonacci level which gave a bit of a bull trap, as price broke and impulsed above the 200d SMA and prior resistance from the November 2011 price high near $35.00.

So what’s the bottom line?

To summarize, $33.00 is likely the dividing line between whether to expect a future move back to the $38.00 level if support holds, or else a breakdown towards the $28.00 level if this confluence fails.

Part of technical analysis is finding confluence levels that are important pivot points, and then developing IF/THEN game-plans in real-time as price moves towards or away from these levels.

It would be a bearish short-term development should the confluence support at $33.00 fail – so that will be the level we’ll use as a simple chart-based pivot reference level for silver prices.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
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2 Responses to “Monitoring March Confluence Support in Silver”

  1. Matt Says:

    Ugly looking Bearish Engulfing with a huge volume surge. A retest of 26 looks like the higher probability over the next few weeks.

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