Studying the Stealthily Strong Trender Disney DIS

Sep 26, 2014: 11:14 AM CST

You may not be aware that Disney (DIS) is one of the strongest trending stocks in the Dow Jones and S&P 500 right now and has been since its breakout in mid-2012.

Let’s start with the Monthly Chart (where the magic is) and study this stock from there:

I wanted to focus this post on the purity of the price trend in motion for Disney (DIS) shares.

Note the typical sideways long-term consolidation from the 2000 peak to the 2002/2003 low into the peak near 2007 and the retest of the bottom of 2009.

Many stocks show a similar pattern (top in 2000, bottom near 2002, top again in 2007, bottom again in 2009) and other stocks also share breakouts to new all-time highs in the 2012/2013 period, but there’s something special – if not magical – about Disney shares.

The strength and persistence of the strong uptrend that took place in mid-2012 carried price almost straight up into the current $90 per share level (doubling from the $45 per share resistance). Continue Reading…

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EMA Compression Breakout Trade Forming in Chipotle CMG

Sep 26, 2014: 10:36 AM CST

Chipotle shares (CMG) are forming an “EMA Compression” trade set-up which is a specific type of breakout pattern.

Let’s see the chart, note the trigger levels, and plan a strategy for those interested in this high-priced stock.

A few things jump off the chart at us at first glance.

First, there’s the price pivot point at the $600 per share level (yellow highlight) which serves as a downside target on a bearish breakdown.

The second factor is the retest of the gap near $645 and the current “EMA Compression” pattern.

The “EMA Compression” pattern refers to price holding support at the rising 50 day EMA (blue) but finding resistance slightly overhead from the declining 20 day EMA. Continue Reading…

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Weekly Pullback Planning for SP500 and Dow Jones

Sep 25, 2014: 2:26 PM CST

Following up from the prior “Pullback Planning Update,” let’s take a quick look at the broader S&P 500 and Dow Jones to note the logical pullback (retracement) toward the rising weekly targets.

Let’s start with the S&P 500:

Focus our attention on the price, upper Bollinger Band, and rising 20 week EMA (green).

I highlighted each time recently (2013 to present) where price retraced into – and pulled back away from – the upper Bollinger Band and then traded back to the rising 20 week EMA as a target.

At this point, price is once again repeating this pattern where price is pulling down away from the resistance toward the rising 20 week EMA support target – it’s currently trading at 1,955.

Notice each time price has retraced to this level (as a target) and then rallied back to continue the stimulus-fueled uptrend. Continue Reading…

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Bearish Breadth and Price Collapse Stock Scan and Update for Sept 25

Sep 25, 2014: 1:02 PM CST

Look out below!  Price broke support and collapsed in a liquidation event today where the selling has (so far) been relentless.

We recorded perhaps our most bearish breadth chart since I’ve been keeping record of intraday sector breadth on the open blog.

Let’s see the current S&P 500, note ultra-bearish breadth, and then highlight our weakest stocks of the day:

Again view the two recent S&P 500 updates so far from the week:

Planning the Pullback in the US Stock Market

“Support Range Bounce for the S&P 500″

Price stalled this morning into the 2,000 target and began the session with a gap-down as bears became the aggressors and bulls accepted defeat through liquidation selling.

Price not only rapidly achieved the 1,980 prior low target, but broke it without stopping to achieve the 1,970 level where we see price trading currently.

This is not a day to call a bottom in the liquidation swing taking place – it’s a product of an overbought market with multiple divergences where the bearish resolution finally is taking place (stronger perhaps than expected). Continue Reading…

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Bouncing Market Update and Trending Stock Scan for Sept 24

Sep 24, 2014: 1:05 PM CST

Right on schedule, price rallied up from a known support target level and we have yet another Trend Day in motion.

Start with this morning’s S&P 500 Support Bounce Rally post and let’s now take a look at our intraday update.

Let’s jump into today’s update with an update on the S&P 500:

Take a close look at the two recent S&P 500 updates so far from the week:

Planning the Pullback in the US Stock Market

“Support Range Bounce for the S&P 500″

With those in mind, we currently see the market rallying up – as was expected – from the 1,980 confluence target level as positive divergences further suggested higher odds for a rally.

How far may this rally continue?  We’ll focus initial attention just shy of the 2,000 level and if price breaks through that target, we’ll extent upward resistance levels toward the 2,010 level again. Continue Reading…

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