June 26 Repeat Day Market Update and Stock Scan

Jun 26, 2015: 12:32 PM CST

So far, price is repeating a pattern that we saw yesterday.

Both sessions saw rallies up off a key support level, only to see price break and collapse under this level mid-day to continue the sell-swing (retracement) on the higher timeframe.

What’s going on now and what levels are important? Let’s see:

Here’s a key strategy planning quote from last night’s members-only update:

“On a bigger picture, price remains in a TRADING RANGE (Daily chart) and at the moment, should continue trading DOWN AWAY FROM the upper resistance level – we’ve seen this happen over the last three sessions as expected.”

“For now, if price continues to “do what it should do,” then it will fall down toward the 2,080 level, down away from the 2,100 support level.”

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We note the real-time action as price continues to “do what it should do.”

For intraday and swing traders, it’s just a matter of trading the retracements or even breakdown trades that trigger along the price pathway lower (should it continue).

Continue Reading…

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June 25 Range Breakout Market Update and Stock Scan

Jun 25, 2015: 1:28 PM CST

After yesterday’s Trend Day Down, price stabilized at support into a morning Range Day.

However, mid-day we’re seeing an instant breakdown under support which calls our attention.

What’s going on now and what levels are important? Let’s see:

Here’s a key strategy planning quote from last night’s members-only update:

“…[P]rice would be slightly more likely to fall (to continue the range) than it would be to rise.”

“FOCUS ON PRICE and the equally-likely movement AWAY FROM the current midpoint/magnet levels here (2,100/2,110).”

A morning range gave way to a continuation of the expected/logical sell-swing in price as we see the market move “Down Away From” resistance with divergences potentially “Toward” lower support zones as seen above.

A true continuation of the range sets up a sell-swing back toward 2,080 but for today and the rest of the week, we’ll focus on the Fibonacci Retracement grid.

The break under 2,110 sets in motion a play toward 2,100 and then perhaps 2,095.

Each of these would be both targets and potential “support-bounce” zones for intraday traders.

Continue Reading…

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Big Picture Planning the Key Support Shelf and Range in Gold

Jun 25, 2015: 1:08 PM CST

On the short-term frame, Gold trades within a well-defined rectangle trading range.

Traders can continue playing “Ping-Pong” range-fade trades as long as price bounces between clear support and resistance levels.

However, let’s pull the perspective up to the weekly frame to note just how important our current levels have become and what may be the plan for the future should price break free of this range.

We’ll start with the Daily Chart to highlight the range:

Through all of 2015 (and the latter part of 2014), gold prices have bounced between the highlighted range above (with one exception – the breakout and return in January).

Think of $1,200 as the “Magnet Level” which means that when price departs from this level, it returns toward this anchor price and alternates above and beneath it.

You can also think of $1,200 as the anchor price for a rubber band where price “snaps back” when it moves too far away from this focal point.

In chart terms, a key support level has developed near the $1,170 level (green) and resistance developed into $1,220 (red).

A “Double Bottom” occurred just under $1,160 for V-Spike Reversals that propelled price higher back into the range.

For short-term traders, plan your strategies with respect to these levels – playing bullish bounces “up away from” the $1,170 pivot and then “down away from” the resistance level near $1,225.

These strategies will continue to be effective until gold breaks free once again of this range – and be ready for that. Continue Reading…

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June 24 Trend Day Stock Scan and Market Check

Jun 24, 2015: 3:00 PM CST

Logic suggested a downward swing away from resistance today and that’s precisely what we saw.

What’s going on now and what levels are important? Let’s see:

Here’s a key strategy planning quote from last night’s members-only update:

“Using that logic, our RANGE CONTINUATION Dominant Thesis – as yesterday – will call for trading the market short/bearishly on a logical movement DOWN AWAY FROM the 2,125 overhead resistance level toward 2,110 or lower.”

And as expected, price did move “down away from” the resistance highs “toward” our lower initial target.

Now, we watch positive divergences take place into our target which sets up tomorrow’s strategy session.

For now, let’s enjoy the simplicity and efficiency of today’s strong Trend Day down.

Continue Reading…

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Color Structure and Trend Charts of US Stock Market June 23

Jun 23, 2015: 2:41 PM CST

Let’s take a moment to update our “Color Structure and Price Trend” charts of our big three US Equity Indexes as we push toward the end of June 2015.

As usual, we’ll start with the S&P 500 Index:

When we refer to “Price Structure,” we’re referencing the specific series of highs and lows that builds a trend.

Note swing highs and swing lows along the way.  It helps to connect these with hand-drawn trendlines.

The color-coded price bars (based on Average True Range) help us quantify what is – and what is not – a swing.

In addition to studying the trend, we want to note the periods of trending (expansion) and contraction (ranging) phases.

Right now, price is in a clear uptrend but in the context of a sideways consolidation at the highs.

Unless we see a violation (break) under the lower rising trendline (which only happened once in October 2014), the odds (and trend structure) would favor a continuation of the uptrend in place.

The same logic applies to the Dow Jones and NASDAQ as highlighted below: Continue Reading…

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