Market Still Holding at the Extended Highs October 11

Oct 11, 2017: 2:22 PM CST

Stocks continue to hold the highs at the 2,550 “Open Air” level on an extended upswing.

Here’s the quick chart update and the plan for the next immediate price swing:


As I share with members each night, we plan the next swing in price and then play that out – usually in terms of movement “toward” and “away from” key levels – either on a swing (Daily Chart) or intraday basis.

Right now, the price “failed” to pull back (retrace) sufficiently at the beginning of October (notice that the pattern has been pulling back from the upper Bollinger to the lower Bollinger and then moving back again).

This set the stage for an “Alternate Thesis” extended run or powerful short-squeeze.

We indeed got our powerful short-squeeze which propelled the market straight up through all-time highs toward where we are now at 2,550.

What’s the next expected simple plan?

Look back at the red highlights on the chart – reversal candles at the upper Bollinger Band in the uptrend – and plan for a pullback at least to the rising 20 day EMA again (green).

While that’s certainly the dominant thesis – and should be easy to see – YOU must plan for what you’ll do in the event the market extends the short-squeeze and continues in the lower-probability alternate thesis non-stop bullish swing in which we’re moving currently. Continue Reading…

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Impressive Emini Rally and the Volume Profile Level to Watch

Oct 4, 2017: 11:18 AM CST

With the stellar rally in the market taking us to new all-time highs, what level appears as our Volume at Price pivot?

Let’s update our chart – hint:  it hasn’t changed – and take a look now.

Emini ES @ES Volume Profile

We’ve consistently seen the market print the 2,495 level as the “Volume Node” via our Volume Profile Chart.

With the market screaming higher, it’s done so quickly without time to digest price or volume.

This means we have an “Open Air” pocket beneath the market in the event we ever get a pullback (it feels like we never will).

However, one of two things MUST happen now:

Either price forms a new Value Area or Trading Range (consolidation) at the highs and thus the Volume Node (red line) rises to meet the new accepted or balanced range…

or price crashes through the rapid “sugar high” action on low accepted volume BACK toward a level of price and volume acceptance.

That level on the chart – as seen through the prior price consolidation and the Volume Profile – is the 2,495 level.

Plan your trades accordingly and be safe. Continue Reading…

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Nine Sector Grid Overview Shows Bullish Strength

Oct 4, 2017: 10:45 AM CST

As the market jumps to another new all-time high, let’s step inside the market to see money flow among the nine sectors.

It’s revealing a bullish picture as this grid helps us visualize what’s happening beneath the market.

Here we go!

We’re seeing our Nine Sector Grid with the AMEX Sector SPDRs in our Sector Rotation Style.

The top six ETFs are in the “bullish” or “offensive” group while the bottom three are “defensive.”

We use this logic to cross-check if money is moving toward Risk-ON or Risk-OFF activities.

Let’s just ask which sectors are outperforming the others – we just look at the hourly price trend:

Financials (XLF), Tech (XLK – except for today’s down-gap) , Discretionary (XLY), Industrials (XLI), Materials (XLB), and even Energy (XLE).

Our three “bearish” or Risk-OFF sectors are showing money flow OUT of these groups with the exception of Health Care (XLV).

Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) are hitting new swing lows via intraday downtrends.

For the moment, the situation remains “Risk-ON” bullish or offensive in terms of money flow among sectors.

Continue watching this picture for any sudden changes in money flow across our sector grid. Continue Reading…

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Market Keeps the Bullish Uptrend Going Strong

Oct 3, 2017: 12:56 PM CST

Though it may feel weird, the market just simply keeps plowing higher in a triple timeframe bullish uptrend.

Here’s today’s update as price pushes further away from the rising 20 day EMA:

SPX Rally

We know that “trends, once established, have greater odds of continuing than of reversing.”

We also know that the S&P 500 (“the market”) shows a bullish rising trend on the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Chart thus creating a “triple timeframe bullish alignment.”

It should not be surprising that price continues to maintain its upward pathway which is contained roughly within a rising parallel trendline channel.

We look to moving averages – such as the 20 and 50 day EMAs – to give us points to buy shares on pullbacks or aggressively “fade” overbought and over-extended swings in price far away from these levels. Continue Reading…

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Three Surprisingly Bearish Breakdown Stocks on the Big Bullish Day

Sep 27, 2017: 4:09 PM CST

If you looked at the stock market’s strength and new intraday high today, you’d likely think all was well with the stock market.

In fact, three major stocks in the S&P 500 surprised us with big intraday bearish action today and it warrants your attention.

Let’s pinpoint the surprising bearish liquidation action hidden with the bullish price action of the broader market:

Ge General Electric

Perhaps the least surprising of today’s bearish stocks was General Electric (GE) which closed down 2%.

Shares on the daily chart remain in a downtrend and price triggered a retracement sell signal on the underside touch of the falling 50 day EMA.

Volume increased on today’s sell session.

Coca Cola KO

Next up is Coca-Cola (KO) which also fell 2% today on a price breakout action.

Shares initially held support at the $45.50 level until today when traders liquidated positions, collapsing the price toward the prior swing low.

It took just over one week to eliminate the upward price action that developed since July.

Shares are now in a sideways trading range with bearish undertones.

Proctor and Gamble PG

Finally, Proctor and Gamble (PG) surprised us with a second big 2% sell-session.

Shares fell sharply from the $94.00 high on a lengthy negative volume divergence.

Sellers continued their campaign with a big sell session similar to that of September 21.

Continue studying these names as you do your evening analysis, noting that many traders may miss these bearish shadows on an otherwise bright bullish day. Continue Reading…

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