Trade Planning off the 2000 Key Level in the SP500

Jan 15, 2015: 4:03 PM CST

It’s time once again to plan our intraday and swing trades off the key inflection (pivot) level 2,000 in the S&P 500.

“Will it hold or will it break?”

What happens next on the movement away from 2,000 will define our bullish or bearish strategies.

Here’s a pure price chart to highlight this level and how price has behaved in the past:

Through the latter part of 2,000, we were playing the “Hold or Break” game with 2,000 with our trades.

We’re doing the same thing now as price clearly interacts with this level for the sixth time as shown above.

Earlier in January, buyers saved the market from another decline from this level but this time they collectively may not be strong enough to halt the selling pressure – and stop-losses triggering – on a clean break under 2,000.

Before that – in December – sellers won but were thwarted by positive reaction to the Federal Reserve announcement which catapulted the index to a new yet extremely weak high.

And now we return twice to this level. Continue Reading…

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Jan 14 Selling Market Update and Trending Stock Scan

Jan 14, 2015: 1:46 PM CST

We have yet another sell session in motion, let’s take a moment to highlight key levels, read breadth, and find opportunities in the top trending stocks for the day.

We’ll start as usual with our S&P 500 level chart:

Ultimately, price is doing exactly what it should be doing, at least in terms of breaking out of the compression (see my prior update on “Support and Resistance Planning for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones“) and trading down toward the 2,000 target.

The focal point today certainly shifts to 2,000 and the “Hold or Break” (so far it’s breaking) outcome there.

Look to play bearishly on a movement down away from 2,000 toward the prior low near 1,980.

Otherwise, we’ll plan for bullish “bear trap” or bullish plays on an intervention that takes us back above 2,000.

Continue Reading…

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Turnaround Tuesday Market Update and Stock Scan Jan 13

Jan 13, 2015: 3:04 PM CST

So far today has been a thrilling session.

Let’s jump straight into our mid-day “turnaround” update and plot levels and trending stocks that are important.

We’ll start as usual with our S&P 500 level chart:

Be sure to start with this morning’s update on “Support and Resistance Planning for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones” which highlights the higher frame breakout trigger levels.

Price did break free of these trendlines and pushed lower toward the 2,000 target which was almost achieved in a single session.

Note the reversal up off the 2,010 level and focal points of 2,025 and 2,010.

Continue Reading…

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Jan 12 Falling Market Update and Trending Stock Scan

Jan 12, 2015: 1:41 PM CST

We have another sell session in motion, let’s take a moment to highlight key levels, read breadth, and find opportunities in the top trending stocks for the day.

We’ll start as usual with our S&P 500 level chart:

Be sure to start with this morning’s update on “Support and Resistance Planning for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones” which highlights the higher frame breakout trigger levels.

Right now, we’re watching a Trend Day develop down away from the 2,050 index level.

After a sell-swing lower, the 2,035 reference level became the mid-day resistance.

At this point, we’re simply seeing a swing lower to test 2,025.

For now, focus on 2,025 and 2,035 and the short-term (slightly bearish) range between them.

Continue Reading…

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Support and Resistance Planning to Start January 12

Jan 12, 2015: 11:48 AM CST

The S&P 500 (and Dow Jones Index) has compressed between moving average support and resistance levels.

In simplest terms, we’re waiting for a breakout of these levels to trigger bullish… or bearish… trading strategies for the next market swing.

Let’s chart these simple levels and note what’s important to watch on the chart:

Let’s focus for now only on the 20 (green) and 50 (blue) day exponential moving averages (EMAs).

Right now we have an “EMA Compression” where price is trapped between the 20 and 50 EMAs.

I highlighted two prior events in 2014 where a similar situation occurred.

The main idea is that we’ll wait to trade the BREAKOUT from this level as a possible opportunity.

Right now, a clean breakdown and close under the 2,035 level suggests a third bearish (downward) outcome. Continue Reading…

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