A Bad Day for Wearables GoPro and FitBit GPRO FIT

Mar 13, 2017: 2:44 PM CST

Popular wearable Fitbit (FIT) and GoPro (GPRO) both plunged over 4% today, continuing their ongoing downtrends to new swing lows.

Our foundational principle at Afraid to Trade states “stocks that are weak tend to get weaker” and these two related names show us why we hold this principle and what to expect from “weak stocks getting weaker.”

For example, the get even weaker.  And weaker.

And make new lows in downtrends.

Here’s FitBit (FIT) to kick off today’s example:

FitBit peaked above $50.00 per share after its June 2016 IPO.

That’s when the stock was “strongest” and since then it has been weaker in a persistent downtrend.

Today gives us a gap-down and drop toward the $5.50 per share level.

I’m highlighting each successive new price low since the November 2016 impulse gap lower.

You commit an avoidable trading mistake if you try to stand in the way of this selling/liquidation pressure with any buy (or trend reversal) trades.

Here’s a similar example in related wearable stock GoPro (GPRO): Continue Reading…

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Flailing within the Fibs Emini Update March 13

Mar 13, 2017: 11:56 AM CST

After gapping higher Friday, stocks stalled beneath our key short-term Fibonacci Level.

We’re seeing price trade just shy of this level so far today.  What’s the level and what’s the plan?

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

We’re once again focusing on the 2,368 @ES level (highlighted) as a key make-or-break bull/bear pivot.

Note the green “bullish pathway” above and the red “sell pathway” beneath the price.

This is a zoomed-in updated Fibonacci Grid so be sure to use it for your intraday trading reference.

If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

Continue Reading…

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Big Downside Surprise for Finisar FNSR on Three Push Reversal Pattern

Mar 10, 2017: 1:16 PM CST

The “Three Push” Reversal pattern is one of my favorite chart patterns and set-ups to trade.

When it works, it can produce explosive gains quickly – often overnight.

Finisar (FNSR) gives us the most recent example of the Three Push Pattern on Negative Divergences via today’s collapse from the high instantly to a new chart low.

Let’s see what happened and what we can learn:

First, take a moment to review the “Three Push” pattern at our Education Section of Afraid to Trade.

Next, compare the textbook lesson with the pattern above in Finisar.

We have three almost identical (symmetrical) swings (or drives) to three new highs in the uptrend.

We’ll see in  moment that momentum and volume were also negatively diverging with these highs.

When you’re trading bullishly with a trend, always be on guard for exhaustion or divergence patterns.

Today’s gap-down sends shares tumbling to where the pattern started which overlaps the September gap-up level and the rising 200 day SMA at the $26.50 per share level.

The downside target objective is often the origin of the pattern and/or a prior support level like this.

Here’s the broader picture development with divergences on the Weekly Chart: Continue Reading…

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Playing the Jobs Report Fibonacci Bounce March 10

Mar 10, 2017: 12:56 PM CST

A slightly better than expected morning Jobs Report sent shares surging on Wall Street, gapping the market up.

Notice that we’re playing right now back into our key 2,368 Fibonacci Level which we’ll use as today’s plan.

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

Yesterday’s breakdown sent shares tumbling toward the 2,350 level and a V-Spike Reversal here (at the rising 20 day EMA) set the stage for today’s bullish continuation.

The gap up was short lived as price fell back to test the 2,368 Fibonacci and price reference level.

Let’s keep it super simple – trade bullishly if above 2,368 and bearishly if beneath it to the target levels.

If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

Continue Reading…

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Emini Crashing Down to the Lower Fibonacci Target March 9

Mar 9, 2017: 2:31 PM CST

Well folks, here we are, crashing through the “First Fib” down to the official 38.2% Fibonacci Target.

After a series of tiny “stabs” through our 2,368 level, the @ES finally collapsed lower just now to our target.

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

Strangely enough, this is how Fibonacci is “supposed” to work.

Price reached a high into 2,400 then pulled back to the “first Fib” at 2,368.

After failing to support here (see yesterday’s “Make or Break” support update), sellers took the upper hand, resulting in a crash under 2,360 toward our 38.6% Fibonacci Retracement Target at 2,348.

We’ll simply focus on 2,348 now and similarly trade the movement away from this new target pivot price.

If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

Continue Reading…

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