Charting the Key Daily EMA Compression Levels in the SP500

Apr 12, 2017: 1:31 PM CST

While we study the intraday levels, let’s not lose sight of where we are on the Daily Chart.

Namely, we’re precisely between the 20 and 50 Day EMAs as we can see below:

For quick reference, the market is uptrending with rising moving averages.

However, we’re beginning to see these daily EMAs flatten – and price is bouncing between them now.

Mainly we’re looking at the 20 day EMA into 2,356 and the 50 day EMA at the 2,341 level.

With the dojis and range days just under the 20 EMA, we’re now seeing support off the 50 day EMA.

As always, we use these as key reference areas in a compression until price breaks free of this range. Continue Reading…

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With the Focus on United UAL, Delta DAL May be Ready for a Bounce

Apr 11, 2017: 2:53 PM CST

While we’re watching the stock price of United and the passenger incident, we’re perhaps not watching what’s happening with Delta’s (DAL) stock which is at a critical pivot price.

What’s going on with Delta’s stock and how might it be ready for a bounce off a key target?  Let’s see:

I couldn’t resist discussing United Airlines (UAL) this morning, but Delta Airlines (DAL) might be the more stable trade.

In the Daily chart above we see a standard pullback to the 50% Fibonacci level just above $44.00 per share.

We’re also seeing four (potentially) bullish reversal candles develop AT this critical price pivot.

IF buyers indeed step in and bounce price higher from support, THEN we easily could see a short-term rally take price toward the underside of the falling 50 EMA at $47.00 per share.

Of course, IF buyers fail and sellers work their magic, THEN we could expect share prices to continue their descent toward $42.00 per share (which would be the alternate short-term thesis at the moment).

Let’s step inside the intraday chart to note the build-up of positive divergences and how to frame a trade: Continue Reading…

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A Vicious Bull Trap and Delayed Response to News for United Airlines UAL

Apr 11, 2017: 10:24 AM CST

If you were puzzled as to why United Airlines (UAL) stock didn’t collapse – or at least fall – yesterday, join the crowd.

As word spread via daytime news, Twitter, Facebook, and other sources about the forced removal of a passenger from a flight, the price of UAL actually increased.

Logic – and the bad publicity – would suggest at least a down day when the news broke.

Worse than that, not only was the stock price higher during a negative news cycle, but it also broke resistance into a potential bullish breakout play.

If your head is spinning, look no further to what happened this morning as a vicious Bull Trap triggered and stock prices collapsed more than 4% as word of the incident spread around the globe.

It’s a good lesson in news, expectations, patterns, and trading traps.

Let’s start with the intraday chart to pinpoint the bull trap and collapse outcome:

For reference, this post isn’t about the incident itself, but instead the publicity and reaction in the stock.

UAL shares traded in a sideways range between $70.00 and $71.25 (yellow highlight).

On the negative news day, buyers pushed the stock higher out of the range not once but twice, peaking with negative volume and momentum divergences at the $72.00 level.

Negative news/press aside, this is a divergent situation or non-confirmation of a breakout in motion.

IF volume and momentum FAIL to rise as stock breaks from resistance, odds then favor a reversal.

And what a reversal it was.

This time we have the spread of the negative publicity as a reason for why the stock collapsed, but it did so in the most vicious way (by initially rallying and tricking traders into buying a breakout BEFORE collapsing, as would have been logical to expect).

Here’s the pattern playing out on the Daily Chart and perhaps what to expect next: Continue Reading…

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Finally a Breakout from our Emini Fib Grid Range April 11

Apr 11, 2017: 10:05 AM CST

Well that’s what we’ve been waiting for!!

Price broke beneath our short-term Fibonacci Support level and is collapsing toward the lower target.

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

Today reminds us why patience pays – especially when awaiting a range breakout.

Sellers shattered the 2,345 support level, opening up a morning sell-swing toward the 2,329 prior target.

Continue monitoring this rapidly developing situation in a newly volatile morning market.

If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

Continue Reading…

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Emini Remains in Thrilling and Exciting Range April 10

Apr 10, 2017: 11:24 AM CST

Reality: It’s NOT a thrilling and exciting range, but that’s where price remains as we begin this new week.

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

Ever since peeking out of the range and experiencing a Bull Trap, price remained within our Fibonacci Grid.

Our key levels remain the 23.8% pivot at 2,365 and the more popular 38.2% pivot at 2,345.

I wish it were more interesting, but this is the hand – and range – we’re dealt until we get an actual breakout.

If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

Continue Reading…

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