QuadMarket Holiday Trend Update Nov 28

Nov 28, 2016: 2:36 PM CST

We’ve seen all markets trend strongly after the US Election and Thanksgiving holiday November events.

Let’s first take a look at these stellar, persistent intraday trends and then balance the odds of future short-term reversals:

Here we see the “Quad-Market” or Intermarket Grid I use in my more detailed/lengthy Intermarket Reports.

The main idea here is to track MONEY FLOW across/between the markets for signs of Risk-ON/Risk-OFF behavior.

Clearly, we’re seeing strong RISK-ON aggressive (bullish “all is okay”) money flow.

Stocks are surging along with the US Dollar Index (the Fed will raise rates in December) while the Risk-Off or safety haven of US Treasuries collapses.

Gold also – sometimes a safe-haven, sometimes a bullish play – collapsed $100 from its per-election peak.

With these reactions (money flow trends) firmly in place, we’re now balancing these persistent trends – which cannot last forever – against the odds of at least short-term reversals on momentum divergences.

If you’re trading these markets from a short-term or even swing-trading perspective, create your trading narrative (and thus actual trades) around the “Will the Trend Continue or Retrace?” point of view.

Logic and momentum suggest a pullback is more likely than ongoing continuity but be equally prepared for both. Continue Reading…

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Back to a Key Pivot Point for Swing Trading Apple AAPL Nov 28

Nov 28, 2016: 12:27 PM CST

Does Apple (AAPL) go higher or lower from $110?  Build your next swing trade off this logic:

Apple shares logically tumbled from the $118.00 level on dual negative volume and momentum divergences.

Price extended itself away from the 200 day SMA (red line) and then collapsed back toward it in November.

At the moment, we’re seeing a rally “up away from” the 200 day SMA ($104) now back into the critical “midpoint” pivot.

It’s also a critical Bull/Bear (Buyer/Seller) reference level as you can see with the red and green arrows and prior turning points for the stock.

It was resistance twice and support once previously in 2016.

What’s going to happen now?  That’s where your trades come in! Continue Reading…

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Finally Pulling Back from the Highs Emini Update Nov 28

Nov 28, 2016: 12:16 PM CST

Wait, the market can actually go DOWN? I had no idea!

If you started your trading career in November 2016, I can see how you could think stock prices can’t go down.

Hint – they can and do!  And you can make money when they do by short-selling the market (or buying inverse ETFs)!

All joking aside, Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

Our “Holiday Creep” continued not just last week but for almost all of November.

Nevertheless, the market could be in for a reckoning as negative divergences in a grossly extended market result in a steeper sell-swing into December.

Update your levels accordingly – they’re easy to remember:  2,180, 2,160, 2,145, and 2,130 as a shortcut.

What happens in the rare but possible event the market continues to creep to new highs? We update our Fib Grid.

Want these levels and additional strategy planning in advance each evening?

Get these levels in advance with in-depth planning and trading opportunities by joining the Daily Membership.

Continue Reading…

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The Emini Holiday Creep Continues Nov 23

Nov 23, 2016: 12:45 PM CST

Breakout? Pullback? Extended Uptrend getting more extended? Divergent Reversal? Let’s plan!

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

We have a new Fibonacci Grid for the moment that will remain active on an eventual retracement from the high.

We’ll keep extending it higher – from the earlier low – until we do get that deeper-than-one-hour pullback.

The Market generally has an upward creep – which we’re seeing – during the Thanksgiving Holiday.

We’ll continue to balance the logical odds for a pullback against this “Holiday Creep” and trade accordingly.

Want these levels and additional strategy planning in advance each evening?

Get these levels in advance with in-depth planning and trading opportunities by joining the Daily Membership.

Continue Reading…

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US Steel X Surges through Breakout Highs Nov 22

Nov 22, 2016: 2:49 PM CST

Expectations for future “stimulus” and transportation/spending projects from the new Republican administration sent raw materials stocks – and futures contracts – surging after the US Election.

Here’s the quick update – after a stellar breakout – for US Steel (X) by request:

On the Daily Chart above we see a positive momentum divergence in October – ahead of the election – and a strong bullish surge of volume.

This was perhaps a precursor or early hint of possible bullish activity yet to come.

Nevertheless, shares broke resistance above $20 in the two days BEFORE the election results which again set a bullish potential in motion.

The big gap occurred post-election on November 9th and buyers dominated the market from there.

Here’s the picture as seen best on the Weekly Chart with additional bullish pressure: Continue Reading…

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