May 6, 2009: 7:00 PM CST
What are the “Trade Triangles” saying about the gold market? Fresh from his recent vacation to beautiful New Zealand, Adam Hewison stepped back into the “Digital Den” as they call it at Market Club and released this most recent updated video on gold where he walks you through gold’s multi-timeframe structure, Fibonacci, and possible opportunities, similar to that of which I showed you in my recent post “Gold Inflects off Key Support.”
(Clicking the image takes you to the video page)
Formally titled “Gold… Time to Look at this Market Again!“, Adam writes in the introduction to the video:
“Today we’re going to take a look at the gold market. While many traders have been frustrated with this market for the past several month, it has in fact performed quite well given the generally negative feeling for most markets.
While the printing press is going at full-tilt in the US and the fact that most people are not involved in the gold market at the present time, it occurs to us that this market could indeed be setting itself up for a nice rally.
In our new video, I explain in detail some key levels to watch for in the gold market. If these levels are broken then you definitely want to take a position in the direction of the major trend.” Continue Reading…
May 6, 2009: 2:23 PM CST
Are we reliving the “Melt-Up” scenario of 1982? Or is it more like 1975? Both? Neither? Let’s take a look to see if we can draw parallels.
On Monday, I submitted an article to GreenFaucet.com entitled, “Are We Reliving the 1982 Scenario?” I’m re-publishing most of the article here as well as a link to read a lengthier article by Clif Droke also at GreenFaucet.com entitled, “Why 2009 is Turning into be a Repeat of 1975.”
While I focused almost exclusively on the technicals (chart analysis – patterns in particular), Clif analyzes some of the macro-economic variables and similarities between then and now, and brings in Cycle analysis (for example, the Kress Cycle).
Head over to read his entire piece – here is most of my article which describes “The 1982 Scenario.”
Let’s highlight some eerie similarities in the charts of 2009 and the end of the 1982 Bear Market in what was called the “Melt-Up” action.
First, let’s look at the chart structure at the end of the Bear Market in 1980… though few realized this was the bottom at the time.
As price rebounded sharply off the August lows, price was ‘grossly overextended’ and then we had a rounded arc reversal pattern that accompanied negative volume and momentum divergences. In the case of September 1982, we did see a much larger volume and momentum spike than we’re seeing now. Price had broken down out of a rising trendline and beneath the 20 day exponential moving average (all charts are showing the 20 and 50 exponential average as well as the 200 day simple moving average). Continue Reading…
May 6, 2009: 11:34 AM CST
Just a reminder that the Los Angeles Trader’s Expo – June 3rd – 6th – is exactly one month away! If you’re still considering whether or not you would like to attend, I wanted to remind you that the free conference is rapidly approaching. Registration is free so all you would be pay is travel and lodging expenses.
Take a look at the Expo Homepage for information on the schedule, speaker roster, topic list, vendor list, travel details, and other information relating to the upcoming conference.
I will be speaking on “Idealized Trades for Intraday Traders” in which I will discuss as much as I can in an hour on my intraday trading methodology, important patterns/trade-setups (like the flags, ‘three push’ pattern, cradle trades, gap fades, impulse buy and sell, divergences, etc), and – most importantly – how keeping a visual “Idealized Trades” journal can enhance your pattern recognition skills, increase confidence, and allow you to see structure (opportunities) better in the seemingly random price wiggles that form intraday moves.
Here is the official description of my seminar from the LA Expo Page:
Do you feel like your intraday price charts resemble random squiggles of chaos? Join Corey Rosenbloom of AfraidtoTrade.com as he describes how to place intraday price action with trade set-ups into context and how to identify the day’s structure as it develops. Finally, learn how keeping an end-of-day “idealized trade journal” can enhance your pattern recognition skills, reduce stress, and improve real-time performance. Continue Reading…
May 5, 2009: 5:36 PM CST
A few readers have emailed me to ask what happened last week in Dendreon’s (DNDN) unusual price action on Tuesday, April 28. I wanted to share the chart and some links to other news stories that try to explain what happened and what we can learn from it.
Dendreon tripled in value on April 14th as the company announced positive research results for its Cancer treatment drug Provenge. Investors with strong stomachs and risk-appetites often enjoy trading or investing in biotechnology companies that could ‘hit the big one’ and sometimes they are rewarded for their risks – other times they are not.
I wanted to focus on Tuesday, April 28th’s action and provide some links for what happened and also highlight the risks due to volatility that investors face when trading biotechnology companies. Newer investors are often drawn to these types of moves, but unfortunately, more times than not, the ‘little guy’ winds up hurt or with large losses as a result. Continue Reading…
May 5, 2009: 10:37 AM CST
Gold prices recently defended a critical support area. Let’s see Gold’s daily structure and note the confluence of Fibonacci and Moving Average support.
Gold has strengthened roughly 30% from its November 2008 lows, but fell short of breaking to new highs on its run-up in February.
We’ve experienced an expected/orderly pull-back/retracement off the $1,000 per ounce level into a key confluence support level that was critical for ‘gold bulls’ to hold.
The support comes in at $858/$860 per ounce, which reflects the 50% Fibonacci retracement off the October/November closing lows and the February high. The 200 day simple moving average also rests at the same level, giving us confluence support that has held.
There is also a fractal Elliott Wave count (not shown) which holds the swing from $1,000 to $900 in March as fractal Wave A; the swing back up to $975 in March as being Wave B; and finally the swing down to the $850 level in April being the final Wave C of the possible correction phase. If this fractal Elliott is correct, then we’ve just begun an upward impulse that could challenge or exceed the $1,000 level… provided the $850 support level holds. Continue Reading…