Strongest and Weakest Dow Jones Stocks on May 19 Volatile Session

May 19, 2015: 3:20 PM CST

Let’s dig a little deeper to find which stocks are participating with today’s spastic trend in money flow (or short-squeeze bearish stop-losses) and focus on the leading stocks (and avoid the laggards).

The Grid below helps us pinpoint Dow Jones leaders and laggards for possible opportunities:

The scan above is created with Trade-Ideas, a service I highly, highly recommend for active intraday traders.

I’ll be posting more scans and ideas from them as I’m thrilled by the capabilities of the software and the myriad of options you can scan – all customized to your personal trading style and aggression level.

With all the numbers and colors above, let’s focus all of our attention on the Green and Red bars in the middle.

This is a formula in Trade-Ideas which shows the position in a stock’s daily range – that’s often a better visual marker than simple ranking by percentage up or down on the session.

Plus, we can sort all 30 Dow stocks by the percentage within their intraday range.

We’re most interested at stocks at the top of their range (and the bottom for relative weakness) which would mean McDonald’s (MCD), Du Pont (DD), Verizon (VZ), and IBM are today’s range strength leaders.

They’re currently trading at the highs of the day as indicated by being near the 100% level of their intraday range. Continue Reading…

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Level Planning What’s Next for Crude Oil May 19

May 19, 2015: 3:11 PM CST

What’s happening to Crude Oil and what’s the next tradable swing in price?

Let’s update our chart and highlight the key pivot point levels and new targets right now.

We’ll start with the Daily Chart retracement in motion:

I highlighted to Members last weekend the Negative Divergence as price formed reversal candles and was likely to move DOWN away from resistance into the $62.50 level.

We’re seeing an acceleration of that expected sell-swing today as price broke the $60.00 key level and tumbled – in a Trend Day – down toward our initial target zone near $58.00 (the confluence of the 50 day EMA and lower Bollinger Band).

At this point, we’re focusing our attention on the highlighted pivot zone, willing to continue playing short (bearishly) if price breaks down from here under $57.00.

Otherwise our first target was achieved today, sooner than expected with a big trend day down. Continue Reading…

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Melt Up Market Update and Diverse Stock Scan May 18

May 18, 2015: 1:48 PM CST

The market was at risk for a “Melt Up” or “Collapse Higher” today and heated up toward a Melt Up Breakout.

Let’s take a look at the current picture and plan the next step:

Here’s a snippet from Friday evening’s Premium Member Strategy Report that forecast today’s rally:

“Join the money flow and short-squeeze if the alternate thesis develops which is that the market ignores every shred of bearish evidence and bears become buyers on a short-squeeze bullish impulse break-away above 2,120.”

Don’t miss out on unbiased, actionable analysis (and stock scans!) like this each evening – join the Afraid to Trade Membership today.

While it was logical and expected that the market into resistance with divergences would indeed retrace lower, the alternate “be ready for a bigger move in the opposite direction” thesis triggered today.

With that developed the breakout and – just as forecast – “short-squeeze bullish impulse break-away above 2,120.”

This created a Trend Day environment today where BEARS were helping Bulls push price higher via their collective stop-losses.  Frustration helped propel the stock market higher.

We’re reminded how essential it is to plan a dominant/logical thesis but also an equally planned Alternate thesis so that you’re not trapped losing money a surprise event.

Not only do you preserve capital, you’re able to profit efficiently from it – joining the bigger price movement that often comes from an “unexpected” (to the majority) outcome.

That’s precisely what we do each night for you in the membership.

Continue Reading…

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Today’s Strongest and Weakest Dow Stocks Right Now May 18

May 18, 2015: 11:24 AM CST

With the market tilting toward the “Breakout” or “Melt-Up” outcome I highlighted in this morning’s post, let’s dig a little deeper to find which stocks are participating with the bullish money flow (or short-squeeze bearish stop-losses) and focus on the leading stocks (and avoid the laggards).

Let’s view the chart below and take it step-by-step (and pinpoint today’s Dow Jones leadership):

The scan above is created with Trade-Ideas, a service I highly, highly recommend for active intraday traders.

I’ll be posting more scans and ideas from them as I’m thrilled by the capabilities of the software and the myriad of options you can scan – all customized to your personal trading style and aggression level.

With all the numbers and colors above, let’s focus all of our attention on the Green and Red bars in the middle.

This is a formula in Trade-Ideas which shows the position in a stock’s daily range – that’s often a better visual marker than simple ranking by percentage up or down on the session.

Plus, we can sort all 30 Dow stocks by the percentage within their intraday range.

We’re most interested at stocks at the top of their range (and the bottom for relative weakness) which would mean Cisco (CSCO) and Travelers (TRV) along with Intel (INTC), and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) are showing strength today.

They’re currently trading at the highs of the day as indicated by being near the 100% level of their intraday range. Continue Reading…

1 Comment

Breakout or Bull Trap? A Quick Plan for the SP500 and Dow Now

May 18, 2015: 10:12 AM CST

Right now we’re playing the “Will it really break out or is this just another Bull Trap?” game with our trades and analysis.

Let’s step inside the market quickly to view what’s going on underneath the new price highs.

Here’s this morning’s S&P 500 futures (@ES) intraday chart at the highs:

We’re seeing the @ES Futures (e-mini S&P 500) trade above the 2,115 breakout resistance high.

However, Momentum and Internals – shown with Breadth – are making lower highs (a divergence) while NYSE Breadth is actually negative 745 (745 more stocks are negative right now than are positive on the day).

This non-confirmation suggests another Bull Trap and failure outcome as more likely than the alternate thesis which would be a short-squeeze breakout and possible “melt-up” rally in the stock market (similar to February 2015). Continue Reading…

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