A Surprise Breakout Emini New Level Planning April 13

Apr 13, 2016: 11:33 AM CST

Breakout!!  However, will the breakout hold and will price continue powering higher?

Here’s today’s updated Fibonacci and Emini (@ES) trading levels for your plans and trades:

We’ll eventually have to abandon our Fibonacci Levels above but for now, they’re still in play for reference.

Price closed the day into our 2,054.50 level Monday and then gapped up through “open air” into our prior swing high target near 2,068.

We’re carefully monitoring volume, internals, and momentum – all of which are diverging (or not confirming the high) for signs of continued bullish action or a reversal (failure) back into the range.

Your pivot for the day will be the prior swing high into 2,067 with a “bullish bias” above this level (due to a short-squeeze) or perhaps more likely bearish/cautious under 2,068.

Look closely at Market Internals – with price at a new swing high, Breadth (Advancing Stocks minus Declining Stocks) is visually lower than not only Monday, but all three prior sessions the market rallied (April 8th was the last Breadth high).

We’ll behave with skepticism unless Breadth strengthens or price overrules all indicators and extends the ’surprise’ short-squeeze higher.

Continue Reading…

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April 12 Support Bounce Range Market Update and Scan

Apr 12, 2016: 1:05 PM CST

The Range Continues with a big stock market bounce this morning.

Let’s update our levels for the S&P 500 Index and note the big trending stocks today:

Be sure to start with this morning’s “Emini Breakout and Breakdown Update” for more information.

Today continued the pattern of bouncing up away from the 2,040 level back toward the 2,060 high.

The Midpoint Magnet of the short-term range is the 2,050 level.

We’re focusing on these levels and the movement between them for our intraday trading plans.

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Continue Reading…

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Preparing for a Breakout Trade in Netflix NFLX

Apr 12, 2016: 11:06 AM CST

Netflix (NFLX) shares are likely about to break free of a compression range, giving us an opportunity to trade the breakout.

What levels are important and what are the extended target on the future breakout?  Let’s take a look:

In the Daily Chart above we’re seeing the price compress (range) between a few pivots:

On the upside we have the upper Bollinger Band, 200 day SMA, and 50% Fibonacci Retracement at $106.50.

For support, we have the rising 20 day EMA (today’s pivot) at $102.00 along with the 61.8% Fibonacci and “Round Number” Reference level at exactly $100.00 per share.

Like the S&P 500, Netflix trades within a short-term range in April.

Shares are likely getting ready for a breakout one way or another from this range. Continue Reading…

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April 12 Morning Gap Emini Level Update and Plan

Apr 12, 2016: 8:37 AM CST

As we gap up away from our key support pivot, what levels are in play and what should we be watching?

Here’s today’s updated Fibonacci and Emini (@ES) trading levels for your plans and trades:

Monday’s price action was identical (mostly) to Friday’s as I wrote in our daily update for you.

As we wake up to trade Tuesday’s activity, we’re seeing the bounce “up away from” the 2,034 highlighted pivot.

This makes 2,040.50 and then 2,047 as upside intraday targets and possible pivot/reversal points.

We’re always playing movement toward or away from key levels like these.

Of course, a breakdown under 2,034 (should it happen) opens a play toward 2,025 but that’s not at work yet.

Continue Reading…

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Planning the Next Market Swing from Advance Decline Breadth

Apr 11, 2016: 3:23 PM CST

What message is Breadth sending us about the next likely swing for the stock market?

Let’s take a look and compare the current message with a similar situation from late last year.

In the chart above we’re seeing the NYSE Advance Decline (Advancing Issues minus Declining Issues) in the middle along with the Volume Difference (VOLD) of Breadth (bottom chart).

I think the message is clearer from the lower VOLD (Volume) chart but let’s examine it all.

First, let’s trace the similar upside rally in the Dow Jones from October to November 2015.

That strong rally terminated into 18,000 on clear negative divergences (red arrows) in Breadth (internals).

However, the market didn’t roll-over or reverse instantly; instead, price traded sideways until breaking lower in January 2016.

Now a similar sell-swing and almost identical rally higher (see prior update) takes us back not only to the 18,000 level, but also a similar situation in price and Breadth. Continue Reading…

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