A Longer Term View of our Collapse in Market Volatility

Aug 22, 2017: 11:09 AM CST

We know that volatility is lower in our current environment, but by how much… and what does it mean?

Is it going to change or stay this way forever?

Let’s take a quick look:

Volatility SP500 SPX

First, take a moment to view my prior update “Charting How Volatility has been Zapped from our Current Market” for a closer (shorter-term) view.

The perspective above uses the Weekly Chart going back to the birth of the current multi-year bull market.

What we’re seeing in the indicator beneath price is the percentage change per week in the S&P 500.

I drew a horizontal line at the +4% and -4% levels for reference and also drew a “triangle” or compressing trendline to pinpoint the ongoing compression in weekly range (volatility).

The last time we saw a week down more than 5% was right at January 2016 and then one more week like that exactly two years ago this same week in August 2015.

We’ve not seen a 5% up-week – despite the ongoing bull market – since January 2013 (and before that – December 2012).

Volatility was much higher at the end of the 2008 Bear Market and the beginning of the 2009 Birth of the Bull Market. Continue Reading…

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The Exciting and Expected Emini Bounce August 22

Aug 22, 2017: 10:55 AM CST

Traps on both sides of the market?  Another surge off support!  Sounds like a typical week.

Here’s today’s @ES Fibonacci Grid in play:

Emini @ES Intraday Trend Reversal

Our analysis (that I’ve correctly been highlighting to members) had us focusing on 2,420 as a critical support/bounce price pivot level and today we’re seeing the outcome of that critical “last support” pivot.

This morning gave us a gap-up away from the 2,420 low as price traveled not just to our first target (the 2,439 level) but the middle target here at 2,448.

With the bounce underway and the target achieved, use 2,450 as your new bull/bear pivot within our larger Fibonacci Retracement Grid.

Come join us to learn these tactics (beyond this simple/quick update) and have an evening game plan you can use effectively for the next trading day. Continue Reading…

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ULTA Beauty Plays Desperately for a Longer Term Support Bounce

Aug 21, 2017: 2:52 PM CST

Can they do it?! Can they do it?

Buyers will be eager to step in to hold support at the current critical pivot for ULTA shares.

What’s the pivot and what’s the swing trading play from here?

ULTA Beauty Support Bounce Play

Before we get to the pivot play, let’s look at the beauty of the divergence and clear reversal pattern from the $300.00 per share level.

Shares advanced in a strong uptrend on higher momentum and volume, especially in 2016.

That situation deteriorated with a lengthy negative momentum AND volume divergence in place as we stepped into 2017.

Buyers gave it one more go, exhausting their campaign when shares peaked above $300 on a massive, year-long divergence with a V-Spike Reversal Top Pattern.

The end-result was the expected, logical sell-swing toward rising moving averages, and sellers broke price beneath the rising 20 and 50 week EMAs very easily.

Now we’re at the “final support” pivot of the prior lows from two big reversals in 2016. Continue Reading…

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LuluLemon LULU Squeezes its way Between the Daily EMAs

Aug 21, 2017: 2:41 PM CST

Shares of Lululemon (LULU) jumped today, but merely continued the “ping-pong” between the 20 and 50 day EMA price pivots.

It also held a key support level from our Fibonacci Grid.  What’s going on?  Let’s see it:

Lululemon LULU

Shares plunged in 2017 from $70.00 beneath $50.00 but have since recovered.

Strangely enough, shares sit right at the 50% retracement (recovery) of the 2017 decline.

It’s a key level that we’ll use for our future swing/short-term trading.

Simply stated, price is playing bouncy-bounce (ping-pong) between the falling 20 and rising 50 day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

We won’t take a trade until price BREAKS OUT of this yellow zone between the EMAs.

When it does, use it as your trigger to trade the “Departure” from this squeezed level. Continue Reading…

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Helpful Pullback Price Planning Grid for NAS Dow and SP500

Aug 18, 2017: 1:12 PM CST

How far have the “Big Three” US Equity Indexex pulled back, what level tips them into a “Correction,” and what level throws us into a new Bear Market?

Here’s a new Reference Grid for you to determine the exact levels – as of right now.

52 Week High Pullback Price Planning

What we’re seeing is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ.

Given that the current 52-week High holds, these are the future  pullback levels to define “Correction” or “Bear Market.”

If this pullback is all we get and the market rallies back to new highs, then we just saw a (roughly) 2.5% pullback in the Dow and S&P 500 and a 4% pullback in the NASDAQ (based on the 52-week high and this morning’s spike-reversal low).

Here are your simple reference levels going forward. Continue Reading…

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