Planning the Next Market Swing from Advance Decline Breadth

Apr 11, 2016: 3:23 PM CST

What message is Breadth sending us about the next likely swing for the stock market?

Let’s take a look and compare the current message with a similar situation from late last year.

In the chart above we’re seeing the NYSE Advance Decline (Advancing Issues minus Declining Issues) in the middle along with the Volume Difference (VOLD) of Breadth (bottom chart).

I think the message is clearer from the lower VOLD (Volume) chart but let’s examine it all.

First, let’s trace the similar upside rally in the Dow Jones from October to November 2015.

That strong rally terminated into 18,000 on clear negative divergences (red arrows) in Breadth (internals).

However, the market didn’t roll-over or reverse instantly; instead, price traded sideways until breaking lower in January 2016.

Now a similar sell-swing and almost identical rally higher (see prior update) takes us back not only to the 18,000 level, but also a similar situation in price and Breadth. Continue Reading…

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Big Intermarket Moves Today in Gold Oil and US Dollar

Apr 11, 2016: 12:35 PM CST

While the US Stock Market is slightly higher, we’re seeing big intraday breakout moves occur in Gold, Oil, and the US Dollar Index.

Let’s plot these price swings and note the cross-market money flow right now:

The clearest movement is between the Range Breakout in Gold and the Range Breakdown in the Dollar.

The $1,245 level served as intraday resistance within a narrow trading range ($1,220 to $1,245) in Gold.

Today’s price action gapped above this range and continued surging above it.

Similarly the $94.00 level in the US Dollar (futures contract @DX) held support until today’s gap-down.

Unlike Gold, we’re seeing a slight recovery or retracement in the Dollar – not an outright trend day.

Finally, here’s the picture with Crude Oil: Continue Reading…

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April 11 Repeat Day Emini Expanded Level Update

Apr 11, 2016: 11:09 AM CST

Does this look familiar?

It should – today’s gap up into resistance and the sell-off (so far) is identical to what we saw Friday.

Here’s today’s updated Fibonacci and Emini (@ES) trading levels for your plans and trades:

Check out Friday morning’s update and compare what happened then to what’s happening right now.

I also expanded our ongoing (and successful) Fibonacci Grid to highlight the lesser-known boundaries.

The 23.60% retracement was Friday’s high and this morning’s gap resistance into 2,054.50.

The prior gap-out low was captured by the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement just above 2,025.

In addition to our ongoing levels of 2,047, 2,040.50, and 2,034, add these “gap-out” levels into your grid.

Continue Reading…

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Volatile Gappy Market Update and Stock Scan April 8

Apr 8, 2016: 2:32 PM CST

The volatility and gaps continue for us short-term traders in the market.

Let’s update our levels for the S&P 500 Index and note the big trending stocks today:

Be sure to start with this morning’s “Emini Breakout and Breakdown Update” for more information.

We’re seeing more Trend Days and intraday gaps than usual, which keeps us on our toes as short-term traders.

Higher volatile environments cause us to pay more attention and – often – decrease position size to adapt.

Nevertheless our current intraday focal levels are the 2,044 and 2,055 S&P 500 pivots.

Receive daily updates, planning, and education by joining the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership.

Continue Reading…

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April 8 Emini Intraday Trading Range Level Update

Apr 8, 2016: 11:12 AM CST

We’re seeing higher volatility, sequential Trend Days, and larger than normal gaps recently.

This is a heightened volatility and thus heightened risk environment so monitor positions closely.

Here’s today’s updated Fibonacci and Emini (@ES) trading levels for your plans and trades:

To get a sense of the real-time progress and set-ups as it developed, see Tuesday’s morning level update along with Wednesday’s level update.

Thursday gave us a breakout and today returns us right back inside that range.

The main levels are the same:  2,047 (38.2%), 2,034 (61.8%) and the Midpoint (coming into play now) at 2,040.

I also drew a rising trendline (black) that connected the prior swing lows and reversals higher.

For today’s session – the gap up and return BACK within the range – we’re focusing right now on 2,040. Continue Reading…

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