Jan 5, 2015: 3:09 PM CST
Stocks tumbled sharply this morning, breaking a key support level which exacerbated the selling pressure already underway.
Let’s update our levels and note the strongest downtrending (collapsing) stocks for today’s trading session.
I’ll provide a more detailed update and targets for Daily Members but for now, let’s focus on the failure to hold the price and 20 day EMA confluence support near the 2,055/2,060 index level.
The result was a collapse of the support floor, leading instantly to a touch of the 2,035 target (50 day EMA0 and now a journey likely to touch or break the 2,000 level.
Reference early December for a similar pattern of how the most recent sell-off developed. Continue Reading…
Dec 31, 2014: 2:10 PM CST
So far, stocks are taking a breather (retracing) to end 2014 with two final days of selling pressure.
Still, the S&P 500 will be up around 13% for the year – an impressive gain for a single year.
For our last mid-day update post of 2014, let’s focus on what the market is saying and what levels are important as we end a stellar year.
The “Santa Claus” or end-of-year historical rally appeared right on schedule, inflating the S&P 500 from the 1,980 level to the prior high just shy of the 2,100 target.
We’re seeing natural, normal, expected, highly probable selling (retracement) taking place from these levels as suggested by a lengthy negative dual divergence (into resistance) in momentum and Market Internals.
Follow the retracement lower but beware that volatility can be high – and volume relatively low – as a year comes to a close.
Funds and investors balance portfolios and make adjustments that don’t necessarily translate into neat price patterns as would be the case in normal environments (not holiday periods).
Dec 30, 2014: 3:22 PM CST
CME Group (CME) is forming an ‘Arc Trendline’ pattern that is among my favorite patterns to trade.
Let’s view the arc, note the levels, and highlight profit opportunities from future movement:
Imagine these curved or arc trendlines as you would regular trendlines where price tends to trade down from resistance and up off support.
However, the curve or parabolic nature tends to reach a climax or peak on a breakout through the steeply lower rising trendline.
Trade WITHIN the trendlines – using caution – as long as price does continue to bounce between these levels.
However, look to take profits or consider short-selling a breakdown – and possible reversal – through the lower trendline. Continue Reading…
Dec 30, 2014: 10:32 AM CST
We’re accustomed to seeing stocks at all-time highs but what about other markets?
And what do long-term charts – specifically back to the early 1980’s – show about stocks, the Dollar, Gold, Oil, and US Treasury Yields?
There’s only one way to find out these insights from the long-term frame: Let’s see them!
We’ll highlight the main trends and put our current market action in context of the higher perspective.
Stocks continue in a primary bull market with two interruptions – the early and late 2000’s temporary bear markets.
It’s amazing how small these bear markets look on this time-frame.
The current multi-year bull market rally is in some ways similar to the 1996 to 2000 rally as the S&P 500 tripled in price from the 500 level to 1,600.
We’ve seen the current bull market run from 666 to the current 2,100 level, also tripling in index value. Continue Reading…
Dec 29, 2014: 3:53 PM CST
As 2014 quickly rushes to a close, let’s highlight today’s strongest trending stocks and note potential opportunities that may develop from these candidates.
Here’s our daily list of strongest intraday trending bullish stocks:
I selected these stocks using our daily relative strength algorithm (which I use in each day’s free blog update post), only this time I plotted the stocks on the hourly chart instead of the 5-min chart as usual.
What we see is a broader perspective of opportunities and a context from where the bullish strength develops.
For example, our strongest bullish stock today is American Water Works (AWK) which triggered a short-squeeze impulsive breakout above the $54.00 resistance level (an instant buy).
Study the stock further for additional trades that may be setting up on pullbacks or additional short-squeeze upward price action.
Unlike AWK, Dynergy (DYN) is breaking strongly into a resistance level and thus is a less-attractive candidate. Continue Reading…