Apple AAPL Returns to the Swing Highs Dec 28

Dec 28, 2016: 1:01 PM CST

What’s going to happen next with big trending stock Apple (AAPL)?!

Let’s plot the Daily Chart and highlight the two trade plans for what happens next at the highs.

Apple (AAPL) surged from July to October, boosting price from $90.00 toward $120.00.

Price fell from a divergence at resistance near $118.00 per share which is exactly where price is right now.

You can build a simple, strategic trade based on the DEPARTURE from the $118.00 level.

Trades don’t have to be elegant or fancy; they just need to capture price movement.

When price retests a key level – like a prior high – bulls and bears (buyers and sellers) battle for dominance.

One side will win while one side will lose. Continue Reading…


Emini Fibonacci Breakdown Update December 28

Dec 28, 2016: 12:46 PM CST

Is that an actual breakdown on a holiday week?

Price shattered our First Fibonacci line of defense, opening up a new phase in our holiday week trading.

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

From mid-December to present, price remained in a 20 point trading range between 2,250 and 2,270.

This morning, we’re seeing a break beneath the 2,250 level that opens a new sell-swing pathway toward our 2,238 Fibonacci Target (38.2%).

It’s surprising that price gapped back higher toward the 2,270 target and then instantly collapsed to the 2,250 level.

Be on guard for a bear trap snap (bullish) reversal back above 2,250 but absent this, play toward 2,238.

Get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

Continue Reading…


Believe it or Not Market Breadth Remains Strong Dec 27

Dec 27, 2016: 2:43 PM CST

As we rush into 2017, let’s pause a moment to assess the health of  this strong price rally at the end of 2016.

We know that price and the trend is strong, but what about the “guts” or internals of the market?

Here they are in full bullish glory:

Let’s first take a moment to figure out what we’re seeing.

The top grid is “The Market” via the S&P 500 and the lowest (green) grid is the most important for this post.

It’s the net difference of the “stocks making new highs” and “stocks making new lows” in the index.

You can also look at the second grid which is the raw data of “stocks making new 52-week highs” or the middle (red) grid which logically is the number of stocks making new 52-week lows.

We’re seeing April to December 2016 and it’s clear that internals have been strong and far more stocks achieved fresh new 52-week highs than did new lows – that’s to be expected in a bull market.

Now, we look at “how strong” is the bull market or more specifically what’s the trend of Breadth?

It turns out that the trend in breadth is just as strong as the market itself.

How do we know that? Continue Reading…

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Perfect Pullbacks and Beautiful Breakouts for NVDA

Dec 27, 2016: 11:58 AM CST

We’ve had NVIDIA (NVDA) on our trading radar for quite some time because it has consistently been a “strong stock getting stronger.”

Our core trading philosophy at Afraid to Trade is that trends – once established – have greater odds of continuing than of reversing.

We love trading – and teaching pullback strategies – on stocks like NVIDIA while the trends persist.

As you’ll see, NVIDIA’s (NVDA) trend persisted a lot longer than many traders thought it could.

However, let’s focus now on the strategies and now the “Angles of Ascension” (what’s that?) for NVDA.

We’ll start with the Daily Chart:

It’s far better to trade WITH the trend as opposed to trading AGAINST it.

That’s the focus of my presentation at the upcoming Traders Expo in New York City in late February.

As you’ll see on the Weekly Chart, NVIDA resumed its uptrend with a breakout event in May on HUGE volume.

A series of pullbacks (retracements) from July to present helped add money to your trading account if you were brave enough to attempt them.

Here’s how we identify trending stocks and trade them via our Perfect Pullback Method.

What’s most important right now is the increased price momentum on lower relative volume.

That’s a bit concerning and suggests another pullback may be brewing for early 2017.

Here’s the increased acceleration of the trend and the “angular momentum” trendlines on the weekly chart: Continue Reading…

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Emini Relentlessly Runs for the Highs Dec 27 Update

Dec 27, 2016: 11:39 AM CST

It wouldn’t be a holiday week without a bullish drift, would it?

The S&P 500 traveled the well-worn path of another bullish bounce off our Fibonacci Grid toward new highs.

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

Despite an expected “holiday drift,” we’re instead seeing price maintain a 20 point trading range (as I featured inFriday’s update) and now pull back once again to our “first Fibonacci” retracement at the 2,250 level.

We’re still trading within a 20 point range between the 2,250 and 2,270 levels.

Today’s price action is the expected bounce up away from 2,250 toward 2,270 which buyers achieved this morning.

Get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

Continue Reading…

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