I wouldn’t be able to keep up with all of those posts! I’ve had a bit of trouble with the comment script I’m running and have recently changed so now comments go through a filter but are unmoderated and show up immediately if they pass the filter – I no longer approve comments manually. Even then there was the same number of comments.

Thanks for the comments! Keep in touch.

I’m afraid not even Cramer can help or hinder this large-scale structure. Could anyone have stopped the 2001-2003 decline? Look at how symmetric it was in terms of impulse moves down with countertrend rallies up (on the S&P). We’re seeing very similar patterns with no evidence of a bottom (no retesting or basing). Every new low was thought to be the bottom, but every new low led to yet another spike lower low with the Fed sweeping in to rescue. Now, not even Congress can rescue.

I honestly thought there would be a nice countertrend rally up after the Bail-out bill passed. My analysis had to be shuffled after Friday’s and – well – today’s price action. We’re grossly overdue for a countertrend rally up, but we don’t seem to be getting it – yet.

Cramer/Schmamer. I feel for the people who follow him blindly. He had them aggressively buying the “Dow 14,000″ top and now he’s got them panic selling?

If this does prove to be the bottom and people start stringing together videos of him screaming “BUY BUY BUY” at the absolute top and then screaming “SELL SELL SELL” at the absolute bottom… who knows. MAYBE he’ll lose at least some of his appeal?

Exactly. That’s my sentiment – in regards to “We’re getting there quicker than I anticipated.” I’ve always had the Fibonacci retracements, but we nailed them so quickly. I figured the 50% would give us a steady bounce but alas that wasn’t the case (on the S&P 500, that is).

I haven’t done complex Gann or Elliott yet, only anecdotal, ‘top level’ study, but what I can gather – from Elliott at least – is that we could be in a large-scale “Expanded Flat” pattern where the A Wave was the 2000-2003 decline; the B wave was the 2003-2007 advance (which took price slightly above the “A”), and then IF that is the case, then the C wave will take us at least to the prior 2002/2003 lows if not slightly beyond. Looks like 2000 completed a large-scale 5 wave impulse, and if that is the case, this Elliott interpretation would be the dominant one in my opinion.

Until otherwise, the trajectory indeed is down.

Absolutely! Generally, I’ve kept my roaring bearishness private but yes, it’s been clear that the dominant pattern in the S&P has been the double top and for some time now, there has been near uniformity to the early part of the 2000-2001 decline to present, and we’re seeing history mirror itself at least on the technical picture of the S&P. The Dow was headed lower as well because of the same economic reasons (cycle) and you’re 100% right – here we are.

The thing that’s surprised me is the ferociousness, or quickness of which we’ve hit these levels. I had a time target further out, but still, here we are.

Thanks for your comment Rafael!