Ten Year Treasuries Return to Higher Timeframe Trendline
After Tuesday’s US Election, we’ve seen rapid movement in the intermarket landscape.
Let’s focus on the sharp “Return to Trendline” movement for US Treasuries:
As I’ve been highlighting to weekly members, Bond Prices remain in a rising parallel trend channel.
With the negative divergences in the summer at the upper trendline, we’ve been expecting a larger reversal swing lower toward the rising lower trendline near 127.
After the election, we see price at this lower target sooner than expected.
We’re now watching the play away from the 127 pivot.
We can see the 10-Year US Treasury Yield and see the inverse pattern as rates spike rapidly:
With this chart, the 21 index level corresponds to the 2.1% Treasury yield.
Price is inverse yield.
We’re seeing the Yield spike into its upper trendline target near 2.1%.
It’s all-but-certain that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December with this picture.
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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).
The bond market action has been fascinating this week. I can’t believe the magnitude of the moves we’ve seen. It will be interesting to watch if the trends of higher rates and a steeper yield curve continues.
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