The Arc of Crude Oil to Watch for Reversal

Dec 16, 2014: 1:31 PM CST

Arc Trendline Patterns are among my favorite things to see on a chart because of the simple pattern and the large reversal that can occur once price breaks free of this “exponential” event.

Crude Oil is forming an “Arc Trendline” pattern as it collapses rapidly, so be sure to watch this pattern and how price reacts to it for a possible reversal.

Here’s the broader picture (weekly chart) before we see the actual pattern:

The bigger picture shows a rising parallel trendline (‘rising rectangle’) price pattern from 2012 to 2014 ahead of the mid-2014 breakdown.

The trigger break under $95.00 set in motion the current feedback loop of selling that essentially collapsed the price to the current $55.00 per barrel low.

Let’s now zoom in to see the “Arc Trendline” pattern and highlight the key levels to watch now:

As seen in the weekly chart, the Crude Oil slide began with the breakdown under the $90.00 level in October.

Sellers became aggressive as buyers eventually became sellers (liquidating losing positions) which is the opposite of a short-squeeze (this is a “long liquidation” event).

When OPEC refused to reduce production (supply) on the falling price, it only sent the price lower as demand decreased (with weakening economies) and the same level of supply.

Nevertheless, the price pattern developed an exponential curve, more popularly known as an “Arc Trendline” pattern.

For now, we wait for price to continue falling sharply until it breaks firmly through the upper trendline which is quickly moving but currently near the $56.00 to $57.00 level.

Price can snap-back quickly on a trigger-breakthrough as short-sellers rush to take profits (buying-back to cover) while aggressive bulls (buyers) step in to call that elusive bottom.

Focus on these trendlines and the $55.00 to $60.00 per barrel price level.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
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1 Comment

One Response to “The Arc of Crude Oil to Watch for Reversal”

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