Glad you liked Breakpointtrades. How can I get them in contact with you. Do you have an email you could send me. I’ll pass it along to Matt/Steve. I’m thinking you both could help each other out however going to let you too work this out etc.

Let me know

Thanks
Chris

I added your link into the post text to broaden the discussion.

There are both simple and complex strategies for timing the market but I find simple ones work the best.

Noticing the above chart, one could use the simplest method which looks at swing highs and swing lows (trend confirmation) and then confirms that perhaps with a moving average crossover/orientation method. There have been stable moves up, down, up, and down over the last 11 years and I would suspect the pattern would be effective going forward.

I checked out their site and I love it! It’s so detailed (I browsed a couple of past newsletters) and they’re so thorough – you really don’t see that kind of thoroughness outside of large institutions.

I’d love to learn more about them and perhaps how they got to where they are/background.

Thank you for passing along the information!

Very nice post, I realized this a few years back and had since then reduced my contribution to my 401k and put into my trading account. Using trend definition, higher highs and higher lows, I put my money on those etfs with long-term trend (weekly/monthly) until that trend is broken. ETFs has been increased so much that it makes that strategy much more easy. So far it’s very successful.

Thanks for keeping us updated on Wave 4. Appears SPX 1075 level near 50% retacement (If it gets that high) will be good area to exit longs and raise cash for Wave 5 move to start. If we get SPX 1140 area or near 61.8 retacement I will get short.

On a side note did you get a chance to check out breakpointrades.com yet? I made Matt/Steve aware of your site and that you would be checking breakpointtrades out. Matt/Steve are like you they do tech. discussion and are great for people like me who work full time. I cannot watch market live everyday. They have saved me alot of money on there calls of market trends/directions and explain in detail why etc.

Very much how you do it.

Would be a great study from a long or cash perspective. I’ll try it in TradeStation and pass it on to Rob if I can’t get it to work.

True, and I think Rob’s study addressed that point. He was looking at timing long only entries over the 11 year period, as in fixed (twice a month) or tactical (each time the 2 RSI triggered).

I moved into cash early in 2007 but held a few long positions in my retirement account but exited those in May. I remember a time when I was afraid to write the word “Recession” on my blog and put it in quotation marks because it was unacceptable to use the word in early to mid 2008 – almost like you were a pessimist/heretic so I see where you were coming from.

I still believe the big 5th wave is yet to come, but that we will have to go through a 4 up rally. According to EW, a bottom cannot be in, and given the optimism that a bottom is formed, a bottom cannot be in.

Bottoms are only formed when everyone gives up and decides there is no bottom in store. Once that pessimistic view becomes mainstream to the TV news and public, then we’ll have our bottom.