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Afraid to Trade

Month: May 2008

Market Education

KNDL – Massive Head and Shoulders

Bycjrosen May 13, 2008

I’ve you’ve never seen a clear Head and Shoulders pattern, look immediately to Kendle International (KNDL). The stock is forming a broad H&S pattern, and the Right Shoulder actually developed a mini-H&S pattern within it – it’s one of the strangest patterns I’ve seen. I annotated this chart for visual clarity.  The black lines represent…

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Daily Commentary

Alcoa Breaks to New Highs

Bycjrosen May 12, 2008

Alcoa (AA), a Dow Jones component that manufactures aluminum and is taking advantage of the recent materials rise, broke key resistance to make a new high in 2008 today, and could continue higher to make potential all-time highs soon. Let’s see what’s up: The stock broke a rectangle consolidation period from $34 to $39 per…

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Daily Commentary

Intraday Semi-Trend Index Action

Bycjrosen May 12, 2008

Today’s US Stock Market Indexes surprised us with a semi-trend day.  The day began with a perfect gap-fade and then gave us a ‘double-distribution’ trend day.  Let’s look at it! In the DIA 5-minute chart, we see the day start with an opening gap that was filled and then the market trended in the direction…

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Daily Commentary

A Little U-Turn Buy Action with Gap Fade

Bycjrosen May 12, 2008

So far, the US Stock Market Index trading has been stable using simple strategies that I have discussed frequently on the blog.  Let’s examine the U-Turn Buy (or Saucer/Rounded Bottom) action along with the classic Gap-Fade trade today. You can almost ‘feel’ the balance shifting through simple visual inspection of the price action alone to…

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Daily Commentary

Market Status with Materials and Healthcare

Bycjrosen May 11, 2008

Happy Mother’s Day!  Let’s take a quick view at the Dow Jones Index, along with two key sectors which I’ll put in focus today – Materials and Healthcare. First, the Dow Jones ($INDU): The market failed at the resistance provided by the (now) falling 200 day moving average, and from prior support at the 13,000…

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Uncategorized

Dollar Bumps Weekly Resistance

Bycjrosen May 10, 2008

The US Dollar Index staged an impressive rally on the daily charts, but is currently failing to surmount resistance via the strong 20 period moving average on the weekly chart. Notice how the falling 20 period moving average (exponential) has served significantly as overhead resistance, thwarting any rallies ever since late 2006. Price recently tested…

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Market Education

How to Increase Your Win Rate Easily

Bycjrosen May 10, 2008

How can you increase your % win rate for your trades by adjusting one of two parameters?  Would it be worth it for your overall profitability? I’ve been doing a fair amount of trading system development and optimization thanks to TradeStation, Tradecision, and Excel and have found some surprising initial results. For the purpose of…

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Market Education

Interesting Intraday Action in AAPL

Bycjrosen May 9, 2008

Apple Inc (AAPL) showed some interesting patterns today on its intraday chart – I thought you might like to take a closer look. The day started with an overnight gap down that didn’t fill, although price achieved a 50% retracement. Gaps that fail to fill can lead to larger trend moves in the original direction…

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Uncategorized

Crude Oil and Trade Triangles

Bycjrosen May 9, 2008

Crude Oil tapped above $124 intraday today, marking yet another new record high for the crucial commodity. Is there a potential way to analyze and trade this development with Market Club’s Trade Triangle Technology? Adam Hewison today released a new brief info-movie for your benefit. I thought it was funny that he described crude oil…

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Daily Commentary

Commodities Race to New Highs

Bycjrosen May 8, 2008

Do you know where commodities have been lately? Does it matter to the market? Let’s take a look at a few select commodity indexes to see the new highs made on some of these indexes today. First, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index: Notice the extreme price movement that created the surge which took this index…

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