Dr. Steenbarger detailed the notion of the “Small Edge” in his recent post “Small Edges, Consistent Returns.” In the post, Dr. Brett runs a variety of scenarios through Henry Carstens’ P&L Forecaster to compare results across having an edge (or lack thereof) of a couple of percent, or having a win/loss ratio of .9, 1.0,…
The “talk of the town” this morning is the massive overnight plunge and devastating losses in 2008 for government chartered mortagage companies Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNA). Also, Federal National Mortgage (FNM) has shown a very similar pattern. Let’s look at Freddie Mac (FRE) Monthly: What’s curious about this chart is the absolute…
We expect mutual funds to perform roughly in line with the respective average – actually, we expect mutual funds to beat their average because we pay management fees to the fund managers. What happens when a given fund grossly underperforms its benchmark? The famous Legg Mason Value Trust (ticker: LMVTX) is such a fund that…
According to Adam Hewison of Market Club, Gold prices are showing a “Classic Pattern” that we should take note. He has prepared a short video from his Traders Educational Whiteboard Series entitled “A Classic Pattern in Gold” which walks you though his analysis and shows some of the capabilities of the Market Club charting software…
Today’s intraday action, like yesterday, was quite interesting and relatively difficult to trade successfully intraday. Let’s look at the Dow Jones structure intraday and how it factors into the potential ’rounded reversal’ pattern on the hourly chart. DIA 5-minute: Price began with an upside gap – such gaps can occur after a strong close or…
Treasury Bond/Note Yields rose rapidly for the first part of June and then fell just as rapidly through the second part. With yields testing weekly support, and failing daily support, are we due for a reversal back to the downside or a simple reassertion of the potentially newly developed uptrend? Let’s look at the 10…
Today, the US Stock Market may be in the process of completing a ’rounded reversal’ or ’rounded intraday bottom’ before heading higher in a couter-swing back up, which will work off the ‘oversold’ technical condition we’re in. Let’s look at the charts to see what’s happening. DIA (Dow Jones ETF) 30 minute chart: I may…
It’s time to broaden our perspective and view the major market indexes from countries around the world. How have they performed since the October 2007 US Stock Market Peak? Let’s review the percentage comparison for insights. Since the October preak, only Brazil ($BVSP) has held its own, and has now turned negative from the peak…
Today’s intraday price action in the major US Indexes was nothing short of fascinating. Swift moves caught both longs and shorts off guard, and momentum, velocity, and volatility was high – despite the day ending not far from where it started. DIA 5-minute chart: I expected an upside, potential upside reversal bias to the day…
The Stock and Index Futures market recently plunged precipitously and are currently trading at session lows due to increased uncertainty about the state of the economy. Let’s look at the plunge and the pattern preceding it. The chart shown is the @YMU08 or Dow-Mini futures contract (instead of the DIA, which I normally show). Price…