Today’s decision will be more about tone than action – about words than a policy decision. The Fed is expected to keep overnight rates locked at 2%, though some may begin to discuss the threat of inflation on the economy, and may be trying to “jawbone” or threaten action if inflation numbers continue to be…
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tested the March closing low today, with a large, sudden plunge to the test and a solid recovery (so far) off this level. The market is at a very critical juncture now. The ‘zoomed in’ daily chart: Price gapped lower this morning and then careened to test the March 2008…
The Utilities Sector (XLU) has shown relative strength in the background of the recent market downswing, and still trades in a respective chart position. Let’s look at its chart and its comparison to the S&P 500. XLU – Utilities Daily Chart: Since the March lows, price has steadily and comfortably trended upwards, and price now…
US Steel (X) broke a resistance level today, which could signal higher prices yet to come for this basic materials sector stock. Daily chart: Although momentum seemed to be diverging, the indicator broke a trendline just ahead of the eventual price break above the $185 resistance zone. The stock has had an impressive run over…
Apple Inc (AAPL) is a highly publicized stock which has exhibited a smooth trend recently. Is the most recent action in AAPL a steady retracement or a full-blown reversal? Let’s look to the charts for some clues: On the weekly structure, price has just completed a large run-up in price on declining volume (throughout 2008). …
Have you been keeping track of what the larger picture is on the charts of the major US Stock Market Indexes? If not, let’s take a moment to see what the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P look like on their monthly charts. S&P 500: The S&P is beneath its peak in 2000, and appears to be…
How does flipping a coin relate to trading probabilities? Simple, we can look at different probabilities of trading outcomes based on the distribution that results from a pure 50/50 chance outcome. What do I mean? Although the odds of a successful trade are rarely exactly 50/50, let’s assume that – for the moment – they…
What is the Arc of Opportunity, you might ask? It’s reflective of the smooth, even transition that’s occurred recently in the Dow Jones Index. You could name it whatever you like, actually, such as the “Arc of Shame,” “Arc of Buying and Selling,” “Arc of Transition” or whatever seems catchy to you. Let’s look at…
Valmont Industries (VMI) has been a steadily rising stock until recently, when bad news destroyed the tranquility of the recent rise. Let’s look at the charts for some clues and educational lessons. First, the stock broke above its downtrending moving averages in late March (double arrows), signaling strength in the stock. The breakout from consolidation…
What have your favorite sectors returned so far? Let’s take a look at Sector SPDR performance both for the month of June so far and the year 2008 so far. For the month of June: The Financial sector returned the worst performance for June, dropping almost 13% so far. The only sector to post a…