Investors certainly are skittish lately. One of the biggest drags on the economy – many economists say – is the declining housing market and its effects on the American consumer. With stock prices still advancing, bad economic news has had little effect on the general market, at least not to the extent expected. We recently…
As mentioned in previous posts, you don’t have to be right to make money. In fact, the need to be right can actually cost you money! If you find yourself frustrated by incorrectly guessing the market or a stock’s direction, give up! No, I don’t mean quit trading. Try a different strategy. Stop trying to…
If you are fed up with trying to guess the direction of the market and being wrong, try experimenting with these trading ideas: Place stops on alternate sides of technical decision nodes By this, I mean find a spot where the market reaches a known barrier and forces itself into the difference between two outcomes….
I have read many times how it is more important to make money in the market rather than be right-on with your opinion of price action or market direction. How many times have you excitedly told your friends or family what the market was going to do the next day? Or what direction a particular…
Recent price action confirms a downward break of consolidating trendlines on the 30 Year Bond futures (USM07), combined with a New Momentum Low, forecasting lower bond prices to come (and also higher bond yields). Both outcomes (lower bond prices and subsequent higher yields) often isn’t the best scenario for the stock market, yet we’ll see…
Attached is the most recent “swing” charts and market-structure charts for the major indexes and also the quirky action I observed in Google today. First, as a teaser, here is the Google Action (15m bars): Notice how price quickly rallied from $467 up to $480 before falling right back to $470. For pure day traders,…
Bill Fleckenstein recently published two bearish articles both on the US and Global economy. Here are a few quotes I wanted to highlight: From Ignoring the Lessons of 1929: The economic and financial landscape of 2007 bears striking similarities to 1929. …business began deteriorating in the spring of 1929, though the partying in stocks lasted…
Here are recent charts from StockCharts concerning sector strength/weakness and intermarket relationships between Stocks, Commodities, Bonds, and the US Dollar. Energy (oil) prices have risen almost 5% since early April 07, leading the sector pack (which tends to be a negative sign) Consumer Discretionary Spending and Consumer Staples took the hardest hit, loosing 3% each…
Although I don’t incorporate stock relative strength charts as much as I should, I am going to begin posting more on this concept as I better understand the implications that can be interpreted from adding this additional tool to the analysis arsenal. Relative strength charts compare price change relative to another security (or index or…
While 8 of the 10 items in the index of leading economic indicators registered negative, the market took it in stride and has continued its creeping trend higher. Here are charts of the major indexes: Again, the Dow has held up the strongest in terms of relative strength. To illustrate this point, here is a…