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Market Internals Deteriorate Well in Advance of Dec 31 Selloff

Key Market Internal signals flashed negative divergences and non-confirmations of recent S&P 500 and SPY 2009 price highs, setting up the high probability for a reversal to the downside.

I wanted to highlight a chart I’ve been showing to members of the daily Idealized Trades Reports since Wednesday evening – we’re now seeing the downward action forecast by the plunge in Market Internals. Let’s take a look at the updated chart.

Comparing the US Dollar and SP500 Relationship Since 2007 Peak

In continuing the thought from yesterday’s post “A Look at the Dual Rallies in the US Dollar Index and S&P 500,” I wanted to show a longer-term perspective of the two markets, starting with the S&P 500’s October 2007 peak. This will give us more ground to cover in assessing the inverse correlation between the Dollar and the S&P 500.

A Look at the Two Dual Rallies in the SP500 and US Dollar Index in 2009

With many eyes focusing on the dual (and puzzling) rally in both the US Dollar Index and the S&P 500, I thought it would be good to go back starting with the March 2009 lows and see how many times this has happened recently – it turns out that there have been two times that the S&P 500 and US Dollar Index rallied simultaneously. Let’s see them.

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A Dec 28 Look at the SPY 15min Chart Shows Divergences but Does it Matter?

Let’s take a quick look inside the recent SPY (S&P 500 ETF) rally as seen on the 15-minute intraday frame – we’re seeing volume and momentum divergences juxtaposed with rising moving averages and trendlines, so what does that mean and is that unusual? Let’s see.

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Long Term Monthly Fibonacci Levels to Watch in the NASDAQ

Per a reader’s comment, I wanted to show a quick reference grid of the NASDAQ Index stretching back to the 2000 peak above 5,000 and show three dominant Fibonacci Grids to watch as price moves into the future.

Let’s see the 10-year grid, starting with the 2000 high and stretching to the 2002 low.