Daily Commentary

The market is in yet another phase of shock and awe, surprising traders with a large price volatility move up within the last hour of trading today. According to Reuters, The markets took the news of the recent credit bailout as a report of a “bailout on No. 2 bond insurer Ambac allowed investors to…

I have been following Potash Corp for almost a year now, due to the stock’s stratospheric rise among all stocks, especially fertilizer producers. The recent chart patterns have been interesting, including a major busted chart pattern which threw traders for a loop. Let’s look at the recent patterns that setup in this high-flying stock: The…

Popular betting site InTrade.com is a place where traders from across the globe can bet real money on the likelihood of a variety of events occurring. Currently, the site is showing a 63% chance of the US being declared as in an official recession at some time in 2008, which is actually down from the…

It’s nice to see the market is returning to the classic gap fade pattern working. February has been a rough month for those who love to Fade the Gap according to classical trading, yet January was a very rewarding month for this strategy. Let’s look at the recent action, including a bonus chart: Although both…

I haven’t heard much about crude oil recently (other than it’s expensive) until today, when journalists are bemoaning another test of the $100 per barrel level. Let’s look at the recent history of this major global commodity and what it might mean for the markets: Three times since November, Crude Oil futures have tested the…

The US Stock Market still has failed to break its recent symmetrical triangle or coil pattern, and the pattern is still forming on the major indexes. Let’s peek: Most triangles resolve 66% to 75% of the way to the apex, and that is approximately where we are. Volatility has narrowed and typically price will eject…

The market action today was quite stellar, but ended lower after an amazing morning gap. Let’s look at some of the set-ups and trades that you could have taken today: First, “fade the gap” which occurred over the weekend. The gap actually filled halfway (which classifies as an official full gap morning failure) into moving…

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Indexes are forming a small triangle consolidation pattern, meaning prices are consolidating to a possible apex which may break soon. Let’s check it out (daily): Onto the NASDAQ: The red trend-lines represent the relatively symmetrical triangle on the daily chart (and momentum beneath). Most triangles break 75% of the…

Surprisingly, the market punished traders with a trend day down following yesterday’s trend day up. Usually, we expect some sort of consolidation after a major trend day, rather than a trend day in the opposite direction, which confuses swing traders to no end. Intraday traders often fare better, because many swing trading systems trigger buy…

The intraday action in the major US indexes was a gift in the form of a ‘trend day up’ structure, which occurs rarely, but offers us significant opportunities for profits. Let’s peek: Notice how the market (DIA ETF – 5-minute chart) gapped up, representing an initial momentum imbalance. A gap can serve as the first…