Daily Commentary

The US Dollar Index ($USD) looks ready to continue its decline, as signs of a bottom are yet to be found. Let’s view the chart briefly: Price has made a new momentum low, which has set up the “Impulse Sell” signal after price returned to the falling 20 period moving average. New momentum lows often…

Typically, when the ‘higher risk,’ more speculative stocks as represented in the NASDAQ index (which is geared more for technology stocks) lead in relative strength to the “Blue Chip” longstanding, steady companies of the Dow Jones, this strength has forecast higher prices for all (major US) Indexes in the short term. We are seeing this…

Wednesday has arrived and departed, and now it’s time for the Mid-Week Overview of the Major US Indexes! I always start with the Dow: Price broke to record highs (haven’t you heard it enough in the media?) Price is seeming to complete a downswing (or counterswing) Price is above a significant trendline area Price is…

Sometimes you see a stock chart that grabs you attention and makes you wonder “How!?” National Oil-well Varco (NOV) is such a company. Words only detract from the uptrend beauty that is on this chart: Weekly Arithmetic Chart (NOV): Weekly Logarithmic Chart: Daily Logarithmic Chart: Absolute perfection. Observe the near perfect 45 degree angular rise…

The week of September 23rd – 28th left us in a more favorable technical position on the index that bears were hoping. Price consolidated – through time – and actually added to the gains from last week’s reaction the Federal Reserve’s ‘surprise’ decision. At least temporarily, the bulls have dominated the technical landscape, gaining significant…

Score one for the so-called “Plunge Protection Team” today! We had a 300 point surge on the Dow, which hasn’t occurred since October 15th, 2002. The Fed surprised the market with a ‘larger than anticipated’ 50 basis points cut. The market anticipated a 25 basis points cut, and likely already had that ‘baked in’ or…

In the past, I provided various examples of “Swing Charts” which focus mainly on price, momentum, and connected swings in the market. Here, I provide a few examples of the current swing perspective of the Indexes and overlay basic market structure patterns to the indexes: The Dow Jones Weekly Structure: We see three changes in…

What we thought was a significant support level was decimated by the weakness of the Jobs Report released Friday morning. The Indexes turned from a ‘hair of bullishness’ back to certain bearishness. Recall that all indexes are in confirmed downtrends on the Daily Chart (lower highs and lower lows). The ‘wind of the market’ from…

I wanted to highlight a key potential resistance level in the S&P 500, which has been tested both to the downside and recently to the upside.  This level appears to be holding again. The level is 1490. Notice that there should be support from key moving averages below price currently… but there is significant resistance…

I wanted to show a nice setup that developed just a few minutes ago in the Dow Jones ETF – DIA (5-minute chart): Notice the consolidation and ‘triangulation’ that formed as a result of the convergence of the 50 period MA above and the rising 20 period MA below. Aggressive traders could have positioned themselves…