Weekly Commentary

Let’s take a quick look at the nine major AMEX Sector SPDRs to determine what’s happened so far in 2008: With the S&P 500 down 10.5% for 2008, only two sectors have performed worse than ‘the market:’ Technology has fallen almost 16% for the year (thanks to Google, Apple, and others – who may be…

Let’s quickly look at the charts of some of the indexes to see what may happen next week! First, the Dow Jones Daily: There are significant levels of resistance for the bulls to overcome, the first of which is the falling 50 period moving average; the second is the horizontal line beneath 12,800 which has…

Let’s peek quickly at the Dow Jones Index to see where we’ve come and where we may be headed this week: There is a large barrier which has served both as support and resistance at 12,800. More recently, the falling 20 period moving average has served as key resistance during the last three trading days…

The US Dollar Index continues to make new lifetime lows, which is affecting other markets and economic environments. The Index compares how the US Dollar fares against other currencies, and a country’s currency often is indicative of the economic strength. Rather than discuss complex economic factors, let’s simply look at the charts, which tells the…

The global equity return for 2008 so far is quite bleak. Let’s look at this chart to see some of the major financial markets’ rate of return since January: Global markets are correlated, and global equities are enduring a correction that is taking them near bear market territory (generally a decline of 20% or more)….

Friday saw the market make a large volatility move down, and the impetus has now shifted to the bears it seems. Let’s look at the daily Dow Jones chart: Notice that the market faced major resistance at the 12,800 level, and despite the potential triangle break, the bears could not push the market higher. I…

Let’s take a quick look at the weekly charts of key stocks or indexes to see what could happen in the weeks ahead. First, the Dow Jones: New Momentum Low (blue dotted arrow) hints that lower index prices are yet to come. Non-confirmation by volume (blue solid arrow) hints that the recent higher price swing…

United Technologies (UTX), component of the Dow Jones Index, has recently ended a multi-year uptrend through some highly volatile downside price action. Let’s look at the history of this stock’s chart pattern through the last few years: Monthly Chart: While the monthly chart shows a magnificent uptrend since 1997, the recent action represents a mere…

Let’s look at how the weekly charts of the S&P 500, US Dollar Index, Commodity Index, and 30 Year Bond Index have set-up: First, the US S&P 500: The S&P 500 Index is currently trapped between the key moving averages, but is beneath the 20 and 50 period average. I have added arrows to highlight…

The Consumer Discretionary Sector is important to study for the broader implications for the economy and stock market. When the consumers spend, it is generally good for the economy and when they don’t (or hold back purchases), it’s not. Let’s look at the chart for the XLY, Consumer Discretionary Sector SPDR ETF (weekly): Notice the…