Popular betting site InTrade.com is a place where traders from across the globe can bet real money on the likelihood of a variety of events occurring. Currently, the site is showing a 63% chance of the US being declared as in an official recession at some time in 2008, which is actually down from the…
The intraday price action of the DIA recently formed two back-to-back ascending triangles, which resolved nicely according to classical technical analysis. Let’s look at them: The first triangle occurred after Wednesday’s overnight gap as price consolidated into a coil, with upper resistance coming from the declining 20 period moving average, but lower support steadily rising…
It’s nice to see the market is returning to the classic gap fade pattern working. February has been a rough month for those who love to Fade the Gap according to classical trading, yet January was a very rewarding month for this strategy. Let’s look at the recent action, including a bonus chart: Although both…
I haven’t heard much about crude oil recently (other than it’s expensive) until today, when journalists are bemoaning another test of the $100 per barrel level. Let’s look at the recent history of this major global commodity and what it might mean for the markets: Three times since November, Crude Oil futures have tested the…
The US Stock Market still has failed to break its recent symmetrical triangle or coil pattern, and the pattern is still forming on the major indexes. Let’s peek: Most triangles resolve 66% to 75% of the way to the apex, and that is approximately where we are. Volatility has narrowed and typically price will eject…
The market action today was quite stellar, but ended lower after an amazing morning gap. Let’s look at some of the set-ups and trades that you could have taken today: First, “fade the gap” which occurred over the weekend. The gap actually filled halfway (which classifies as an official full gap morning failure) into moving…
Continuing the thought from my last post asking whether Fed Rate Cuts are Actually Good for the Market, I thought I’d compare the 2 Year Treasury Note, 30 Year Treasury Bond, and the S&P 500 and overlay the recent Fed Rate Cuts on the comparison chart. Let’s see what happened: The chart begins in June,…
Is it really as simple as “When the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it’s great for the market” or “When the Fed raises rates, it’s bad for the stock market”? Michael Panzer of Financial Armageddon recently asked this question, as well as provided an excellent graph detailing stock market returns and Federal Funds rate at his…
United Technologies (UTX), component of the Dow Jones Index, has recently ended a multi-year uptrend through some highly volatile downside price action. Let’s look at the history of this stock’s chart pattern through the last few years: Monthly Chart: While the monthly chart shows a magnificent uptrend since 1997, the recent action represents a mere…
Let’s look at how the weekly charts of the S&P 500, US Dollar Index, Commodity Index, and 30 Year Bond Index have set-up: First, the US S&P 500: The S&P 500 Index is currently trapped between the key moving averages, but is beneath the 20 and 50 period average. I have added arrows to highlight…